Trump won, and the world winced. We await a second chapter of tumult in the West Wing, staffed with the most divisive names in the American conservative establishment. Inside OX1, it’s hard to judge the winds of change in global politics. Few places more so than in the Oxford Union.
They’ve had their fair share of tumult this term. Even national media have turned their heads to watch Oxford’s brightest and best go at each other’s throats. Michaelmas Term has witnessed racism allegations, senior resignations, and speaker walkouts. In 7th Week, they’re beginning to enter an election period of their own, where candidates are pitching their vision for reforms to put an end to the discord.
The Union’s US Election Night Social on November 5th was likely a welcome evening for Union people otherwise conducting more ‘important business‘. Here’s what they had to say.
On election night, the grounds flooded with committee hacks, raring members, and the occasional American exchange student. I entered the bar to a chorus of Union belly laughs and snorts as announcements came through the early evening. Serious reflections were hard to come by. Perhaps the Kamala Colada had raised spirits too high. Amongst the sober interactions, a student foretold the demise of American women into “second-class citizens”, and Trump’s election as a threat to the “global world order”. Another doubted the “fascistic” portrayal of Trump in the media and talked me through an extravagant conspiracy which undermined the high-profile Trump-denier General John Kelly. A Harris win would have shaken America’s culture, one said, accelerating the existential divide between “increasingly educated women”, and blue-collar men. As if straight from the Union playbook, most members fell back on the ‘bastion of free speech’ mantra, and simply hoped “democracy prevails”.
Democracy did indeed prevail. Trump had a relatively clean win on the popular vote, topping Kamala’s support by 2.5 million votes. After a few weeks of contemplation, the Democrats’ loss looks less existential. But even still, the liberal establishment has been left reeling.
The Democrats were banking on three bases for support: blue-collar lower-middle income voters, voters of colour, and pro-choice voters. As the election played out, working-class support for the Democrats collapsed, and exit polls suggest Harris lost 16 points with voters of colour. In 2020, Biden led among those who believed that abortion should be “legal in most cases” by 38 points. This time, Kamala tied Trump among these voters. In October, The Economist described the American economy as ‘the envy of the world’. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, described Biden’s economy as a high-performing “A+” case of success. Median American incomes sit above $80,000, higher than in Trump’s last year in office. Yet, 45% of voters agreed that they were financially worse off than four years previous. The gap between popular sentiment and elite consensus is more pronounced than ever.
Around 11 pm, as the coverage became serious, everyone shuffled into the Goodman Library, where the committee member in charge was taking suggestions on which broadcast to watch. Dwindling shouts of “We want Fox!” were met with the disapproval of the room. In the library, members undertook a paper poll on their election favourite. Harris picked up 63% of the vote to Trump’s 13%, with the rest split amongst the members’ best attempts at joke candidates. President-elect Israr Khan would’ve likely lost out in the electoral college with only 6% of the room. Two members let the whole thing go to their heads and cast their votes for Colonel Gaddafi.
A disgruntled committee member confided that he “wouldn’t be here by choice”. A budding fresher, proclaiming his support for Kamala, sported a MAGA hat, red tie, and sub-fusc. Finance bros banded the predictions of obscure hedge fund managers around the smoking area, and one Master’s student told me he was “very pleased because my portfolio is up like crazy!“.
The Union did the election as it usually does. The speech was free (for members) but rarely clever. Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.