Editor’s note
It’s Summer Eights today, and the Outside OX1 crew is here to row you through all the stories from around the world, including what’s been happening in the Chagos Islands, Myanmar and Venezuela.
After decades of dispute, the UK and Mauritius have finally signed an agreement over the Chagos Archipelago, otherwise known as the Chagos Islands. The deal will allow the UK to maintain some military presence in the area, while also allowing native Chagossians to resettle. However, the agreement has not been reached without controversies. So what should people from both sides of the deal make of the agreement?
Meanwhile in Myanmar, the civil war between the military junta and former government is worsening. At the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpar this week, members discussed how to further their mediation efforts between the two sides, as well as covering other issues such as tensions in the South China Sea. So what does the summit tell us about the solidarity between South East Asian countries, and will they be able to bring peace to Myanmar?
Finally in Venezuela, despite another victory for Maduro’s party in the recent parliamentary elections, the opposition’s mass boycott demonstrates the lack of support and trust in the government. Alongside economic turmoil and crackdown on dissent, what do the elections from Sunday tell us about what is happening in Venezuela, and how can the country move forward from its rocky position?
UK and Mauritius Reach Agreement on Chagos Archipelago
Devika Manish Kumar
On 22 May, the United Kingdom signed an agreement with Mauritius to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago after a sixty-year long dispute between the two countries. This dispute played out in international courts, the United Nations, and became a microcosm of the fight of developing countries against colonization and militarization.
The Chagos Archipelago, also referred to as Chagos Islands, is a group of atolls and small islands nestled in the Indian Ocean, approximately 500 kilometers south of the Maldives and 1700 kilometers northeast from Mauritius.
Once administered as part of Mauritius under British colonial rule, the UK proposed to detach the Chagos Archipelago for defense purposes during negotiations with Mauritius for its independence. Both the UK and Mauritius now dispute whether Mauritius’ consent was given voluntarily. Nonetheless, the Chagos Archipelago became the British Island Ocean Territory in 1965, and Mauritius became an independent country three years later.
Almost immediately, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution which stated any action to “dismember” Mauritius before its independence violated customary international law.
In 1966, the UK signed a 50 year treaty with the U.S., giving it access to Diego Garcia,—the largest island in the Chagos Archipelago—for defense purposes and to counter the Soviet Union and China. In 1971, the entire native Chagossian population, between 1500 and 2000 people, were forcibly displaced from the archipelago. This was to allow for the construction of what eventually became the joint UK-US Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia.
Mauritius has attempted to raise the issue of the Chagos Archipelago at various international bodies. Subsequent debates at the UN saw African and non-aligned countries support Mauritius on the basis of decolonization. The UK, U.S., and a few others maintained that the issue should be resolved bilaterally. In 2019, a pivotal advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice (ICJ)—which the UK and Mauritius are both parties to—concluded the detachment of the Chagos Archipelago was “unlawful” and that the UK must “end its administration” over the archipelago.
Following a meeting between then-UK Prime Minister Liz Truss and Mauritius Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth, negotiations between the two countries began to resolve “all outstanding issues”, including on the displaced Chagossians. The current agreement was reached last October.
Under the terms of the agreement, Mauritius will lease Diego Garcia to the UK for 99 years and have the ability to institute a resettlement program for Chagossians on the archipelago, except for on Diego Garcia. The UK retains a veto on the presence of foreign security forces in the archipelago and will cooperate on marine environmental protection with Mauritius.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has defended the agreement, stating that the UK would not “have a realistic prospect of success” if further legal action was taken by Mauritius. Starmer said international organisations and other countries could use these legal judgements to “undermine” the military base.
The agreement has its share of critics. Conservative Party leader Kemi Bandenoch called the agreement an “act of national self-harm” which leaves the UK “more exposed to China”. In recent decades China has developed close relations with Mauritius. Members of the Chagossian diaspora say they were not consulted in negotiations and do not believe the archipelago belongs to Mauritius.
The signing of the agreement was delayed when the UK High Court granted an temporary injunction, following a case by British Chagossian Bertrice Pompe, who had argued the agreement would breach the UK’s Human Rights Act and Equality Act. A spokesperson for charity Friends of the British Overseas Territories said the injunction was “the first time in UK legal history that a treaty has been paused by court order”. The injunction was lifted later that day.
Starmer has said the “average” cost of the agreement was £101 million annually for 99 years, while the “net overall cost” would amount to £3.4 billion. When asked by a Financial Times reporter on how the government reached the latter figure, Starmer said that public sector projects are measured using net present value, which calculates future cash flows in today’s pounds.
The treaty will enter into effect following ratification by both the UK and Mauritian parliaments.
ASEAN Renews Calls for Ceasefire in Myanmar as Conflict Escalates
Isolde Sellin
At its annual summit in Kuala Lumpur this week, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) reiterated its call for an expanded ceasefire and inclusive dialogue in Myanmar, where civil war and humanitarian crises continue to worsen.
The situation in Myanmar (called Burma by the UK government) has become even more desperate following a major earthquake in March, which deepened an already severe humanitarian emergency. A ceasefire declared after the disaster quickly unraveled, and brutal clashes between the military junta and resistance forces have intensified since. Public outrage surged recently after a military junta airstrike on a school in Depayin Township killed 22 children and their teachers—just one of many signs that the conflict is far from over. In fact, the military appears to be escalating its campaign.
Myanmar was under military-rule for more than five decades starting in the 1960s, though it seemed that the nation was transitioning towards democratic stability during the 2010s. That trajectory was abruptly halted by the 2021 military coup. In the aftermath, thousands of civilians joined the so-called People’s Defence Forces to oppose the junta.
ASEAN—a regional bloc that includes Malaysia, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam—has long sought to mediate the conflict. In 2021, the bloc proposed a “Five-Point Consensus which called for an immediate end to violence and a dialogue involving all parties.
However Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who led the 2021 coup, has repeatedly violated the agreement —despite being an initial signatory. Since the coup, over 3.5 million people have been displaced and thousands killed.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who currently holds ASEAN’s rotating chairmanship, is keen to bring both parties to the table and descelate fighting. He opened the summit by announcing he had met with Min Aung Hlaing and held virtual talks with both the junta, as well as the National Unity Government (NUG) — Myanmar’s government-in-exile. While describing these interactions as a step forward, Anwar warned that progress remains “fragile”.
Throughout the two-day summit, ASEAN’s top diplomats held multiple special meetings. Among the proposals discussed was the appointment of a permanent ASEAN envoy for Myanmar in order to ensure continuous diplomatic engagement.
Beyond the Myanmar crisis, the summit also addressed other pressing issues, including a tariff dispute with the United States, and ongoing tensions over territorial claims in the South China Sea.
In a notable development, a second summit was held just days prior to the main ASEAN event. This additional summit brought ASEAN together with both the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China. Discussions focused primarily on economic cooperation, including plans to upgrade the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) to Version 3.0, which introduces new chapters on the digital and green economies, supply chains, and support for small and medium enterprises.
Maduro Wins Another Election After Boycott
Daniel Burns
After last year’s presidential election win, Venezuela’s ruling party enjoyed another landslide victory in the country’s parliamentary and regional elections on Sunday. However, the result came as no surprise given that the opposition had called for a boycott to what they deemed “farce” elections.
Since 2013, President Nicolás Maduro has led the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, governing the country as an authoritarian leftist state. He took over from his predecessor Hugo Chávez, also a totalitarian leader, after serving him as vice-president since 2012.
Now fulfilling his third six-year term in office, Maduro has tightened his grip on power through crackdowns on public dissent to arbitrary political arrests. In July 2024, opposition leader María Corina Machado was briefly imprisoned during the presidential election—an election the U.S., Brazil, and Columbia all dismissed as rigged.
This year, his victory was preceded by 70 arrests, including that of a well-known opposition member, Juan Pablo Guanipa. Maduro justified these on grounds of the detainees planning a “sabotage” of the election.
In response, Machado called it all a “grand farce”, posting pictures of empty polling stations on social media. As a result of the arrests, she demanded her supporters to boycott the elections.
Machado claims the turnout was 15 percent, while the electoral council says it was 42.6 percent. Nonetheless, it is clear voting rates were down from last year’s election. With Maduro’s party winning 23 out of 24 state governor positions, he is likely unphased by the poor voter turn-out. In his own words, “when the opponent withdraws from the field, we advance and occupy the terrain.”
Despite Machado’s efforts, internal disagreements were visible within the opposition. Former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles said voting was “an expression of resistance” and critical to “not giving up”. In reply, Machado criticised him for “betraying the cause.” Nevertheless, Capriles ended up winning a seat in the National Assembly.
Even though Sunday’s result is in Maduro’s favour, Venezuela’s economic situation will be a sobering reality for him. Alongside long-term sanctions, U.S. President Donald Trump has prohibited Chevron, one of the largest oil companies in the world, from continuing to operate in Venezuela. This will be heavily damaging to Venezuela’s economy given crude oil makes up 80 percent of its exports and 17 percent of its GDP.
Despite Maduro calling the result a “victory of peace and stability,” it does not look like Venezuelans will be seeing any sign of this peace and stability in the next few years—either economically or politically.