In 2012, BBC Sport filmed a now famous advert where Welsh, Scottish, and Irish rugby fans were asked who they most wanted to lose in the Six Nations. The answer was unanimous—England. While this advert was banned, it effectively sums up the nature of the appeal of the Six Nations; it allows the home nations to air their ancient grievances with each other (mainly with England) in a sporting environment that has been more equally matched than football, and a remarkable amount of parity in the Six Nations era between England, France, Ireland, and Wales (Italy have never won and Scotland have not since the advent of the Six Nations era in 2000). 

The Southern Hemisphere’s equivalent tournament is The Rugby Championship (formerly the Tri Nations until Argentina were added in 2012) between New Zealand, South Africa, Australia, and Argentina. While South Africa have won more Rugby World Cups than any other nation, despite being banned from the first two editions due to Apartheid, New Zealand have dominated The Rugby Championship. Conversely, the Six Nations have not been dominated by any single team—England have seven titles, while Ireland, France and Wales each have six since Italy joined the tournament in 2000.

Due to this historical rivalry and fierce competition, the Six Nations is a staple on the British, Irish, French, and Italian sporting calendars. The 2025 edition, which begins as Wales visit Paris on Friday evening, will be exceptionally competitive because this summer the British & Irish Lions will tour Australia, with fifteen places up for grabs.

Ireland

While France are slightly favoured by the bookies, Ireland have won the last two years and are second in the World Rugby rankings behind only World Cup holders South Africa. They have a strong and experienced forward pack headlined by their captain Caelan Doris, who is expected to captain the Lions this summer, and flanker Josh van der Flier, the 2022 World Rugby Player of the Year. Ireland also possess skilled backs, particularly centre Bundee Aki, but their biggest strength is the forwards. While Ireland have been a difficult team to overcome in recent years, a disappointing Autumn has led to some speculation that Ireland’s game plan has been figured out, and that New Zealand may have provided a blueprint on how to defeat Ireland. Also, Ireland’s coach Andy Farrell is on a sabbatical to focus on his job as Lions coach for their upcoming tour, so Simon Easterby will be taking charge for the Six Nations. How the loss of Farrell, one of the game’s best coaches, will impact Ireland remains to be seen. The key games for Ireland will be their opener in Dublin against England and a potential tournament decider also at home against France on the penultimate week of the competition.

France

‘Almost’ is the best way to describe France in recent years. They have Antoine Dupont, the 2021 World Player of the Year, who has returned from a sabbatical to play Rugby 7s at the Paris Olympics, and several other excellent players including winger Damian Penaud, fly-half Romain Ntamack, and back-rowers Charles Ollivon and Gregory Alldritt. Despite winning the 2022 Six Nations this team has disappointed. They were one of the favourites and hosts for the 2023 World Cup, but fell to eventual winners South Africa, and have fallen short in the last two Six Nations. France undoubtedly have it in them to win this Six Nations with key players in excellent form, and French clubs dominating European tournaments this season, but to do so they will have to be on top form in the big games and avoid complacency against ‘weaker’ teams as their draw to Italy last year shows. The biggest games for France are on 8 February in Twickenham and 8 March in Dublin’s Aviva Stadium. 

England

The bookies’ pick to come third is England, though many would dispute whether they are better than Scotland. English rugby is in turmoil as the RFU and its chair Bill Sweeney have come under immense pressure over their finances, and some shaky on-field performances have put head coach Steve Borthwick under pressure. England’s issues are further compounded by Borthwick’s efforts to transition an ageing team, which has worked better than Wales’ attempts to do the same, but there are still some key positions where the best option for Borthwick is still unclear. England are not without their strengths, and have a strong side that blends experience and youth. The biggest games for England are their opener in Dublin, which gives them the chance to make a real statement in their home game against Scotland on 22 February. A win against Ireland would instantly make them title contenders, while a win against Scotland, who have been their betters recently, will likely secure a top-three finish, Borthwick’s job, and a chance at winning the tournament depending on other results.

Scotland

Scotland’s biggest loss occurred before the tournament when captain and key player Sione Tuipulotu suffered an injury ruling him out of the Six Nations. Scotland have players who can replace him, but of course, none will have the same impact. Despite this loss, Scotland still has a strong team with one of the better forward packs in the tournament, arguably the favourites to start on the wing for the Lions in Duhan van der Merwe and Darcy Graham, and, most notably, an extremely talented fly-half in Finn Russell. Scotland’s chances for this tournament rest on Russell’s form, which is currently good, and the hopes that the best fly-half in the Northern Hemisphere will carry them past much deeper teams like Ireland and France. Scotland’s biggest games are at home to Ireland on 9 February and away in Paris on 15 March, but of course, the fiercely contested Calcutta Cup against England on 22 February should not be missed either. A win in two of these three games will give Scotland a good chance at taking home their first-ever Six Nations trophy.

Italy

Italy were the whipping boys of the Six Nations for two decades and stuck in an awkward middle ground – a step ahead of Europe’s leading ‘Tier 2’ Rugby nations like Georgia but a step behind the weaker of the five nations (typically France or Scotland in the 2010s). However, in recent years this has changed and Italy now has a crop of talented players like fly-half Paolo Garbisi, experienced fly-half/full-back Tommasso Allan, and the 2024 Player of the Tournament in centre Tommasso Menoncello. However, their results last year—narrow wins against Scotland (at home) and Wales, and a flukey draw against France—were lucky to an extent and it will be challenging to maintain their form this year. Another factor working against Italy is that most of their top players are backs and Italy lacks a certain institutional knowledge in producing forwards (especially first and second rowers) that the other five nations have. They are outmatched by every other forward pack (even Wales!) in the tournament. If Italy are to overcome these issues and avoid regressing this year, it is essential that they get results in back-to-back weeks in Edinburgh (1 February) and in Rome against Wales (8 February)

Wales

In 2019 Wales were minutes away from a World Cup final—now, five and a half years later, they are comfortably the worst Tier 1 Rugby nation, and probably worse than Tier 2 Fiji as well. Before the 2023 World Cup Wales brought back Warren Gatland, their greatest-ever head coach, but his second spell in Cardiff has not proven as sweet as the first. Now, with the WRU in turmoil, Gatland’s Wales needs to show signs of progress and break a record 17-game losing streak. While his squad selection has raised some eyebrows, he has still assembled a solid unit combining young stars like their captain Jac Morgan and lock Dafydd Jenkins with experienced players like number 8 Taulupe Faletau and full-back Liam Williams. While there are still glaring issues with Wales’ squad—namely an unsettled front row and no long-term fly half—there is enough quality interspersed throughout to ensure that this squad has a chance of avoiding a second wooden spoon in a row. If Gatland is to save his job, the absolute must-win game is in Rome on 8 February and Wales also have a chance of pulling off an upset against England in Cardiff on 15 March.

Reflection

This article has addressed six key questions and will conclude with a seventh— why six nations? For years now, people have called for the inclusion of Georgia in the Six Nations, or supported a promotion-relegation system, and at one point there was even a plan to replace Italy with South Africa! However, we should return to how this article began with that famous BBC Sport advert. The Six Nations is about rivalry. The Home Nations have rivalries with each other (mainly England), France and England also have a fierce rivalry, there has been a competitive rivalry between Ireland and France in recent years, and the Italy-France football rivalry has transferred into rugby to an extent. Georgia, on the other hand, has no rivalries with any of the six, and as they are so far away and share no history with the six it is unlikely one would emerge for a long time. While there is no doubt that Georgia can compete with Italy and the current Wales side, it is worth asking if adding Georgia would dilute the nature and culture of the Six Nations. As for who will win this tournament, the optimist in me hopes for a miraculous Welsh grand slam but the oddsmakers are probably correct in their prediction that France will triumph.