Overview:
The Global Affairs team share some of the most important weekly headlines that you may otherwise have missed.
This week, Laura van Heijnsbergen updates us about the war in Ukraine while Eric Balonwu writes about the current controversy at COP 29. Nick Marshall covers an election which resulted in a landslide victory for the Sri Lankan president and Katarina Harrison-Gaze covers the protests at New Zealand.
As usual, a lot goes on outside of OX1, and we hope this week’s Outside OX1 helps to explain some of them!
Developments in Ukraine – the White House permits use of the ATACMS, and President Zelensky comments on Trump’s election victory
Laura van Heijnsbergen
Following a large-scale attack by Russia on the morning of Sunday 17th of November which resulted in the deaths of at least eleven people, Ukrenergo, the country’s state-owned energy supplier, has ordered nationwide energy rationing. Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that around 120 missiles and 90 drones were involved in the attack, making it Russia’s most serious incursion into Ukraine for some time. These events had an effect beyond Ukraine. Poland prepared jets to protect its airspace, who later returned to base without incident, while Moldova has claimed that Russian air missiles entered its airspace.
Russia’s attack in Ukraine comes amidst a much broader political backdrop. Ukraine will be looking to renegotiate its relationship with the US in the new year with the accession of a second Trump term. On the 16 of November, Zelensky expressed a hope that the conflict would ‘end sooner’ with Trump as US President. Perhaps he will have been heartened by Biden granting permission for Ukraine to use US long-range missiles to strike Russian territory. As the war in Ukraine nears its thousandth day, the conflict shows no signs of immediate cessation – few would have predicted, in February 2022, that it would ever have lasted this long.
Recent developments have brought discussion of possible endings to the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the forefront again. President Zelensky remains firm on an unwillingness to cede territory to Russia – however, this could become difficult if the US diminishes its financial and military support in the new year. Support for sending aid to Ukraine has decreased in the US since 2022 when the war started – particularly among Republican voters. Though President-Elect Trump has said he will end the war ‘in a day’, this frankly seems unlikely. But the actions of the American president will have a significant impact on the Ukrainian conflict, as Biden’s permission for Ukraine to use the ATACMS (MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System) has so recently proven.
This is a massive policy change for the US, and there has been outrage in Russia about America’s decision. The missiles were used in an attack on Tuesday which caused a fire at a military facility in the Bryansk region. The Kremlin has accused the United States of worsening the conflict.
Tense negotiations in Baku as COP 29 ends tomorrow
Eric Balonwu
The 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (commonly referred to as COP29) is being held from the 11th November to the 22nd of November in Baku. The European Copernicus Climate Change Service, is forecasting that 2024 is “virtually certain” to be the hottest year on record – with global temperatures now projected to 1.55°C hotter than the pre-industrial average.
The choice of the host country, Azerbaijan, has been controversial as Azerbaijan is a major oil and gas producer. The President of Azerbaijan told the conference that oil and gas is a “gift of god” while the BBC has reported that senior government officials used the climate conference to boost oil and gas investment in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has a poor human rights record – it has been accused of cracking down on environmental activists and journalists in the run up to COP29. Azerbaijan’s authoritarian president Ilham Aliyev has been in power since 2003 and all the official corporate sponsors of COP29 have ties to the Aliyev’s family.
World leaders and over 60,000 registered delegates attended COP29 – the second highest number of delegates ever since over 80,000 people attended COP28. However, many world leaders including the US, French, European Commission and Chinese president, the Indian prime minister and German Chancellor did not attend the event. British Prime minister, Keir Starmer, did attend the event and pledged to cut UK emissions by 81% in 2035 (compared to 1990 levels).
The main point of contention at COP29 is the level of climate finance provided by developed countries for climate adaptation and mitigation. Currently, countries pledged in 2009 to give developed countries a $100 billion in climate finance (meeting this goal in 2022). Developing countries have said that they need at least a trillion in global climate finance a year – while the EU, according to Politico, wants a $200-300 billion target of public funding.
Sri Lankan President’s left-leaning coalition takes a landslide majority in snap general election
Nick Marshall
The left-leaning National People’s Power (NPP) coalition, led by Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, won a supermajority in the country’s snap legislative elections on November 15th.
After achieving 62% of the popular vote, the NPP secured 159 seats in the 225-member house. This marks the first supermajority won by any party under the proportional representation system first introduced to Sri Lanka in 1977.
This supermajority will empower Dissanayake, a self-declared Marxist, and his coalition to pursue ambitious reforms, including rewriting the constitution, without having to rely on other parties for parliamentary support.
The NPP’s success marks a seismic shift in the island nation’s political landscape, which has been dominated by political family dynasties since Sri Lankan independence. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, a member of the notorious Rajapaksa political dynasty and party leader of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, suffered a huge defeat in the polls, winning only 3 seats compared to 145 in 2019. Adding to their electoral success, the NPP even won the Tamil-majority Jaffna Peninsula, a region that practically never aligns itself with Sinhalese-led alliances and has favoured Tamil nationalist parties across Sri Lanka’s history as an independent state.
In the outgoing assembly, the NPP only held three seats and was largely seen as a weak third party before 2024. Nonetheless, Dissanayake has increased his support since 2022 because of the Sri Lankan economic crisis. The crisis was triggered by tax cuts, money creation, a shift in agricultural policy, and a severe shortage of foreign currency reserves. Ultimately, the economy shrunk by 7.3% and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had to intervene with a national financial recovery programme. Dissanayake’s campaign therefore centred on the working class and opposing government corruption, eventually leading him to win the presidential election in September 2024.
Dissanayake called the general election shortly after taking office to seek a fresh mandate to pursue his intended systemic reforms. He stated there was “no point continuing with a parliament that is not in line with what the people want”. Voter turnout was just under 70%, slightly less than the nearly 80% seen at the Presidential election. The election day has been described as one of the island nation’s most peaceful since Sri Lanka gained independence from Britain in 1948.
Following the election, Dissanayake picked a 21-member cabinet on November 18th at the Presidential Secretariat in Colombo. This involved re-appointing educationist Harini Amarasuriya as Prime Minister, a position she previously held in the interim government formed in the period between the presidential and general elections this year.
The new government will host its first parliamentary sitting on November 21st, where it is expected to draft a budget for 2025 in line with the IMF recovery programme.
Protests erupt in New Zealand over reinterpretation of country’s founding document
Katarina Harrison-Gaze
Over 40,000 people in New Zealand gathered outside parliament to protest against a bill which would reinterpret the country’s founding document. The hīkoi, a traditional Māori form of peaceful protest, culminated in Wellington on Nov. 18 after a nine day march from the very north of the North Island.
The Treaty Principles Bill, introduced by Government minister David Seymour, seeks to legally reinterpret the 1840 Treaty of Waitangi. The treaty is an agreement between the Māori and the British colonists to make New Zealand, or Aotearoa, a British colony. This has sparked outrage from New Zealanders throughout the country, who gathered in protest outside the Beehive, the parliament building, led by Māori Queen Ngā Wai hono i te pō.
The ACT Party, which Seymour leads, believes that the treaty has been misinterpreted over the decades and has led to “division by race”. He maintains that Māori, who make up nearly 20 percent of the country’s population, have received special treatment and have different legal rights compared to other New Zealanders.
The te reo Māori and English versions of the treaty differ considerably, with the te reo Māori version ensuring “rangatiratanga” (self-determination) for the Māori, which is not established in the English version. Instead, the English translation states that the Māori chiefs “cede to Her Majesty the Queen of England absolutely and without reservation all the rights and powers of Sovereignty”. However, the English translation does also grant Māori the “full exclusive and undisturbed possession” of their lands. Both versions of the treaty have since been breached, with the Māori losing 90 percent of their lands in the decades following.
Protestors believe that this bill will “undermine Māori rights”, many of which are based on the document. Labour MP Willie Jackson echoed the sentiment, criticising Seymour for being “offended” by the principles of “partnership, equity, active protection and redress” which have been developed from the treaty. Jackson went on to label the bill as a “disgusting piece of legislation” and called Seymour a “liar” before being removed from Parliament after refusing to retract his comments.
More disruption in parliament ensued, as the first round of voting was disrupted by Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, a Māori MP of the Te Pāti Māori party. She tore up her copy of the legislation and performed a haka in protest, with politicians and members of the public in the gallery joining her.
The bill cleared its first reading, due to a political deal, however it is not expected to pass the next round of voting due to opposition from both left-wing and right-wing politicians.