Overview:
The Global Affairs team share some of the most important weekly headlines that you may otherwise have missed.
The Editor’s Note
Welcome back to the first Outside OX1 of Hilary Term 2025!
Perhaps your New Year’s Resolution was to read more News? Well, we’ve got you covered. New Year, New You, and New News for the Global Affairs Team to cover over the next eight weeks…
In this week’s news, we have seen Trump’s second inauguration following a historic win in the 2024 US elections. However, this has come with a controversial slew of new orders and promises causing strong debate both online and in the court room.
Looking towards the Middle East, Hamas and the Israeli leadership have agreed to a ceasefire deal that aims to stop the 15-month-long conflict in the Gaza Strip.
Closer to home in Europe, the Swiss town of Davos is hosting the 55th World Economic Forum, bringing together key figures in business and politics at the week-long summit. In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party has been made king-maker by the President, who has now given the party powers to form the next governing coalition.
A lot has gone on Outside OX1 this week, so whilst you settle back into the swing of life in the City of Spires, take a quick moment to see what goes on beyond the ring road…
Donald Trump is inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States of America
Nick Marshall
Donald Trump was inaugurated on January 20th for the second time as the 47th president of the USA, following his win in the November 2024 US election.
The ceremony took place inside the US Capitol Rotunda building in Washington D.C., after the plans to hold the inauguration outside, as is typical for these ceremonies, were abandoned due to cold weather forecasts. Many media outlets have pointed out that the inauguration took place at the site where the January 6th riots took place, which aimed to stop the peaceful transfer of power from Trump to Biden in 2021.
Vice-President JD Vance was first to take the Oath of Office shortly before midday local time (around 16:40 GMT), followed by President Trump, marking the start of their four-year tenure. Moments later, Trump gave his inaugural speech, outlining his various policy aims for his upcoming term.
Notable commitments from this speech included (but are not limited to) the reversal of Biden’s landmark climate policies (which would enable the US to “Drill Baby, Drill”); withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement; declaring an emergency of the southern border (which therefore allows for the use of military force in the region); declaring that there are only two genders; outlining intentions to seize the Panama Canal from the Central American nation, and renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America”.
Since entering office, Trump and his supporters have already landed themselves in controversy with both the law and social media. Trump signed blanket pardons and commutations for over 1,500 individuals convicted for their roles in the January 6th insurrection, which was criticised by the US Police Officer’s Union for normalising violence against officers. Additionally, federal courts are reviewing the legality of Trump’s overhaul of birthright citizenship, which prevents the children of illegal migrants, or those on tourist, temporary work, or student visas from gaining US citizenship. As a result, this order has been temporarily blocked.
At a rally in D.C.’s Capital One Arena after the inauguration, key Trump ally Elon Musk was accused of performing a one-armed gesture mimicking the Nazi salute. Whether this was his intent or not is still being debated widely by academics and politicians, with the Anti-Defamation League and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defending Musk’s ‘awkward gesture.’
In the coming weeks, Trump is anticipated to continue with this pace of signing new presidential orders and reversing many landmark Biden-era policies, particularly concerning the climate. The legality of these orders, and whether they will all successfully pass through bureaucratic processes, remains up for debate.
Gaza Ceasefire Deal Raises Hopes for the End of the 15-Month-Long Conflict
Katarina Harrison-Gaze
On Jan. 19, a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas began at 11:15 local time (09:15 GMT) bringing an end to the 15 months of fighting in the Gaza Strip.
The conflict in Gaza began after Hamas killed 1,200 people in southern Israel and captured 250 more. The resulting devastation has been labelled as “genocide” by human rights groups such as Amnesty International, with the UN estimating that around 2 million Gazans were forcibly displaced due to Israeli bombing. Gaza’s Health Ministry estimates more than 47,600 deaths, many of them civilians, although the ministry estimates that the figures may be much higher. The World Health Organisation estimates that around another 30,000 Gazans face permanent life-changing injuries. Furthermore, the Israeli Health Ministry estimates over 1,700 deaths of Israelis and foreign nationals in the fighting in Gaza.
The ceasefire agreement saw the release of three Israeli hostages taken on Oct. 7, 2023, including British-Israeli Emily Damari, as well as the release of 90 Palestinian prisoners who had been held in Ofer Prison in the Occupied West Bank.
The UN announced that 630 trucks carrying aid entered the Gaza Strip on the first day of the ceasefire, with at least 300 going to the north, where the destruction is most extensive. The UN intends to send at least 600 trucks of aid per day into Gaza.
Families in Gaza have also begun returning to their homes. Speaking to the BBC on his return to the Al-Jenina neighbourhood of Rafah, Haitham Abu Ubaid said “there’s nothing left – just rubble” before adding “returning to the [Al-Mawasi] camp, even in a tent seems better than this. They annihilated us.”
The ceasefire agreement has been split into three phases, aimed to bring an eventual permanent end to the fighting in Gaza. The initial phase of the agreement lasts for six weeks and includes the gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops from central Gaza and the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza. This six-week period also sees a prisoner exchange, with Hamas expected to release 33 hostages, and Israel expected to release between 990 and 1650 Palestinian detainees. This number is varied due to the release of Palestinian detainees being proportional to the release of hostages, with 30 Palestinians for one civilian hostage and 50 Palestinians for a female Israeli soldier. However, the list of Palestinian prisoners to be released, published by the Israeli Justice Ministry, did not include Marwan Barghouti, 64, one of Palestine’s most popular, high-profile political figures and a potential candidate for Palestinian presidency.
Negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire are expected to begin in the coming weeks. Former American President Biden, who was in office during the initial ceasefire negotiations, said this phase would mark “a permanent end to the war”, with the aim of releasing all living hostages and a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. The third and final stage would see the return of any hostages’ bodies and the reconstruction of Gaza – a process which could take years. Previous ceasefires have been broken by both sides and previous attempts at negotiating lasting peace, such as the Oslo Accords, have failed. However, despite the possibility of failure, both sides are willing to continue with negotiations.
The 55th World Economic Forum Takes Place in Davos, Switzerland
Isabel Martinez de Rituerto
This week many of the world’s government leaders, business elite, academics, and industry experts travelled to Davos, a town in the Swiss Alps, to talk shop. Seeking to build a bridge between the public and private spheres, the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) annual meeting is an initiative founded by the think tank in 1971 and takes place in January each year, acting as a litmus test for the year to come.
Among the speakers, American President Donald Trump made use of the event to remind the world of his plans to foment the American domestic markets through tariffs. This contrasted with calls for multilateralism by Ding Xuexiang, Vice-Premier of the People’s Republic of China, in just one example of how growing tensions between key socioeconomic players have played out on the WEF stage this week.
Every year, the organisers curate a programme that highlights what business leaders believe to be some of society’s most pressing challenges. This year, these challenges were encompassed in five themes, notably “Rebuilding Trust” to address the rise in geopolitical tensions, “Industries in the Intelligent Age” to explore the impact of AI and other growing technologies on economic activity, and “Safeguarding the Planet” to foment continued efforts to combat the climate crisis. This last category comes following a year that saw COP29 talks stalling on key measures, and shortly after the USA pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement for a second time, only months after the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold, established in that very same agreement, was officially breached. Talks in the fourth category, “Reimagining Growth”, sought to address global demographic shifts and their potential effects on global economic activity, while the fifth and final category, “Investing in People”, hinted at one of the ways businesses hope to work with governments to address the challenges coming our way in 2025 and beyond.
While these five categories go some way to show how business leaders are thinking about the future, they also indicate where there may be blind spots. With several talks on the so-called “intelligent age”, interventions addressing the energetic challenges that society’s increasing dependence on large language models (LLMs) and generative AI models poses were notably few. Among the fastest-growing companies of last year was NVIDIA, which expanded production in response to a surge in demand for semiconductor chips, essential in the training and deployment of LLMs. Critics have raised concerns about the impact this could have on energy usage, notably electricity and water.
Historically, critics of the WEF’s ambitions have not been in short supply, and this year risks similar criticisms. While António Guterres, the U.N. Secretary-General, continued to stress the need for efforts to address climate change, the presence of prominent climate sceptics on the ticket casts doubt over whether these and other calls will lead to tangible outcomes.
The (Far) Right to Rule: Kickl’s FPÖ in Charge of Forming a Government in Austria
Isolde Sellin
In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) has been tasked with forming a coalition to build the next government after winning the popular vote in the federal election in September 2024.
Since the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) has refused to enter into a coalition as a “junior partner” with the FPÖ, they have attempted to form a government with the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the Liberal Party (NEOS). As a result, Austria’s president, Alexander Van der Bellen, entrusted the responsibility of forming a government to the FPÖ under its leader Herbert Kickl.
The new year started turbulently for Austria after the leader of the NEOS dropped out of the coalition negotiations on 3 January. Only one day later, the SPÖ and ÖVP agreed to end their attempt to build a coalition due to lack of agreement on the national budget.
The FPÖ has previously been part of government coalitions, but never as the senior party. The high likelihood of Herbert Kickl becoming Austria’s next chancellor marks a significant shift in Austria’s major political establishments, especially as the ÖVP had previously stated it would not enter into a coalition with the FPÖ in such a configuration.
Strong statements have been made, particularly by ÖVP General Secretary Christian Stocker has described the FPÖ as a “high risk for democracy” and “chaos for Austria,” adding that Kickl is a “radical conspiracy theorist,” and declaring “Nobody needs you”. This remark was made just days before it became evident that Austria might indeed need the FPÖ to form a government, with the only alternative being new elections if the coalition cannot agree on a manifesto.
Kickl drew attention during his campaign through nationalist statements, rallying against migrants, and proclaiming his desire to become a “Volkskanzler” (people’s chancellor)—a term that can be interpreted as a reference to Adolf Hitler, who also used it.
Critics fear that Austria might assume a similar role to Hungary within the European Union, pursuing policies that oppose those of its European partners and acting primarily independently. Kickl has collaborated with Hungary’s far-right Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on multiple occasions, such as during the presentation of the “Patriotic Manifesto,” which questions the European Union’s migration policies. His apparent sympathy for Russia seems to influence his political goals, as he opposes continuing sanctions against the country.
The political developments in Austria reflect the growing influence of far-right parties across Europe and the challenges traditional parties face in countering them. As coalition talks unfold, the FPÖ’s potential to lead the next government raises critical questions about the country’s political direction and its role within the European Union. The coming weeks will determine whether Kickl’s party can form a stable government and what implications this may have for Austria’s domestic and international policies.