It’s official: Donald Trump has been elected as the 47th president of the United States of America after defeating his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris. 34 felonies, 1 conviction, 2 impeachments, and 6 bankruptcies are no obstacle for the now twice-elected president. Trump’s popular vote victory came only shortly after Republicans regained their majority in the Senate. Whilst he may have only won the popular vote by a margin, Trump won a total of 312 electoral college votes, far surpassing the required 270, and making him the oldest president-elect in the history of the United States.
What’s Next?
Although vote counting did not officially conclude until some days after polls closed, it became clear early on that the Democrats’ chances of staying in the White House were slim and the Republicans had a clear path to victory. So, between now and Trump’s official inauguration on January 20th 2025, what will happen? First, the Senate will have to verify the election results, Electoral College delegates will come together to officially ‘vote’ for Trump and Harris, and Congress will then ultimately certify the results once more. This process will take place over several months, but major changes are not to be expected. Indeed, it is improbable that the Democrat version of January 6th, where Trump supporters stormed the Capitol in 2021, will come to pass. After all, the blues pride themselves on acceptance and restraint.
Upon Trump’s inauguration, major policy changes are to be anticipated. These are both cheered for and dreaded, with pre-election talks of the horror-filled ‘Project 2025’ propelling the Harris’ campaign into a fight for democracy itself. However, it will be pragmatically challenging for Trump to implement Project 2025 in four years, as many issues mentioned fall into the jurisdiction of state governments and will involve extensive litigation. More realistically, during Trump’s second term in office, public spending will continue to be higher than most Republicans would want; taxes will be maintained at a low rate, and tariffs will be implemented in light of Trump’s “America First” attitudes. As for foreign policy, the Trump administration is likely to continue supplying military aid to Israel in its offensive in the Gaza Strip and move forward to end the Russia-Ukraine war swiftly, even if this means ceding captured Ukrainian territory to Russia. Indeed, it is challenging to pinpoint which of his proposed foreign policies will truly be implemented. Many policies seem outlandish exaggerations, such as threats to deport 10 million immigrants, an act that would destabilise the US workforce and economy, and “ending the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.“
What went wrong with Harris’s Campaign?
Jumping back to the burning question on the back of many people’s minds: what went wrong with Harris’ campaign? The friendly, charismatic, and seemingly well-rounded candidate looked like she had captured the hearts of the younger generations as a defender of democratic principles and appeared to have had an excellent chance of winning. Indeed, speculations and conspiracies surrounding her defeat have been rampant. But is it true that ultimately, the majority of the American public care more about gas prices than human rights? Were economic policies truly what condemned Harris? Was it avid Trump proponent Elon Musk’s hosting a $1-million ethically dubious lottery in Pennsylvania that tipped the scales? Or was it Trump’s survival of not one but two assassination attempts that sealed it? Perhaps.
Practically, however, the key issues with Harris’s campaign lay in her failure to differentiate herself from Biden. As well as, unclear policies and public dissatisfaction with her work as Vice President in the past four years, seeing that, even though inflation is managed by the Federal Reserves, it was at, alas, an all-time high for most of her time in office and perceived by some Americans as an indication of her poor performance (2021-2023). Arguably, the fact that Harris relied on disputing Trump’s ideals and building her image as his very antithesis rather than trying to clarify her own vision, was the critical point of concern. In overly demonising him and building her campaign off the back of his, Harris perhaps gave Trump more attention than warranted. After all, no news is bad news.
Impact on the Economy
As the S&P 500 surged following Trump’s victory, adding billions to the fortune of the world’s richest, Trump’s supporters are hopeful for a prosperous economy. However, the reality might not be so idyllic. According to economic expert Lindsay James, several of Trump’s policies will likely cause a rise in bond yields, applying pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. While tariffs may be implemented on imports, especially those of Chinese origin, which Trump aims to subject to a ruthless tariff (especially for electric vehicles), causing disruptions to global trade, a Trump presidency is good news for US corporations. His policy of tax cuts and tariffs will increase US share prices and the profitability of US corporations. It is to be noted, however, that while Trump’s win is currently seen as a good omen for the US economy, his antics may herald a presidency marked by volatility and unpredictability, keeping the world on edge as the future becomes more uncertain.