Having worked in the Vatican Press Room during my year abroad, I spent a lot of time writing about the Pope and the Vatican. I would estimate about three articles a week—a number which slowly built up and up, slowly encroaching on my everyday life, until my dreams were about the Vatican Press bulletins. On 21 April, I opened my emails to a ‘communication to journalists’ announcing the death of Pope Francis.
Known for being a progressive pope, Francis represented the face of a changing and modern Church. He advocated for what he thought was right. Every week at the end of his General Audience, he would call for peace throughout the world. He often criticised the excesses of capitalism and greed and he championed the less fortunate and the marginalised, including migrants and the LGBT+ community. Despite this, he still drew criticism for his stance on abortion, calling it a “grave sin”. However, he gave priests the power to forgive women who decide to undergo the procedure.
The theological implications of a pope dying on Easter Monday during a Holy Year were something to consider. But the biggest question in my mind was the question that millions throughout the world were asking: who will be the next Pope?
In theory, any unmarried, baptised Catholic male could be chosen as Francis’s successor to be the spiritual leader for 1.4 billion Catholics around the globe. Yes, that excludes American President Donald Trump, despite his self-nomination. However, in practice, for the last 700 years, the Pope has been elected from a group of cardinals; only six non-cardinals have been pope in the history of the Church. There are currently 252 cardinals, 135 of whom are under 80 years old and thus are eligible to vote in the conclave. Two cardinals have withdrawn from the conclave, according to the director of the Holy See Press Office, Matteo Bruni, leaving the number at 133. Cardinal Angelo Becciu, had also withdrawn from the conclave at the request of the late Pope Francis. This is due to his being convicted by the Vatican courts of financial misconduct in 2020, however was already considered a “non-elector” by the Vatican.
80% of those eligible to vote were appointed as cardinals in the last 12 years by Pope Francis. Additionally for the first time in history less than half of those eligible for the conclave will be European. This marks a shift in the demographic of the Catholic Church, however it may also cause confusion in the conclave as many of the cardinals do not know each other.
I heard whispers while in the Vatican Press Room—every journalist had their own opinion, many informed by years of work and insider information. However, the conclave works in mysterious ways. Will the next pope be as progressive as Francis? Will the next pope also be a Jesuit? Will, after a 40 year break, the next pope be Italian? The conclave is due to start on 7 May, and only after then will we know the answers.
The Frontrunners
Cardinal Parolin
Considered one of the main frontrunners and the bookmakers’ favourite is Italian born Cardinal Pietro Parolin. He served as the Vatican’s Secretary of State under Pope Francis, and was his main adviser. In this role he was head of the Roman Curia, thus overseeing the central administration of the Church. His experience in foreign policy includes being a chief architect of the heavily criticised agreements between the Vatican and China, and negotiating with Middle Eastern countries.
He is considered a centrist, and a relatively indivise figure in the Vatican. However, he has previously criticised the Republic of Ireland for legalising gay marriage, calling it “a defeat for humanity.” In 2024, he labelled gender theory as “ideological colonisation.” Other criticism of Parolin comes from the fact he may be considered by some as too focused on governing with diplomacy, instead of relying on faith.
His election would see an Italian return to power after a 40 year break. Given that 217 out of 266 popes have been Italian, some speculate this may drive cardinals to vote for him.
Cardinal Tagle
Another Jesuit moderate, dubbed the “Asian Pope Francis”, Cardinal Luis Tagle is from the Philippines. He would not be the first Asian pope, due to a handful of early popes from the Middle East. However he would be the first in over a millennium from there and the first ever from Southeast Asia. In the 2013 Conclave, he was considered a candidate.
Cardinal Tagle is seen by many as following in Francis’ footsteps, as the two shared many similar views on the treatment of migrants and those living in poverty. In 2015, as Archbishop of Manila, Tagle called for the Church to reassess its stance on the LGBT+ community, divorcees and single mothers, labelling the view as “severe.”
He, however, has been criticised for his handling of child sex abuse in the Church and his response to former President Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs, in which tens of thousands of people were killed. These scandals may prevent some from voting for him.
Cardinal Turkson
The first cardinal from Ghana, Turkson became a cardinal under Pope John Paul II. He would be the first African pope in around 1,500 years if elected. He previously served as chairman of the Ghanaian National Peace Council and is currently Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences
The College of Cardinals’ report notes that he is keen for Catholicism to “co-exist” with other religions and work on interfaith dialogues. However, in the past he came under fire for screening an “anti-Muslim” video during a synod, which claimed France would become “an Islamic republic.” He later apologised for showing the video.
Despite being called a “darling of Western liberals” for his stance on social justice issues which are considered politically progressive, he has previously drawn criticism for his outspoken stance against the use of condoms during the AIDS epidemic in Africa, reflecting his conservative theological stance.
Cardinal Zuppi
Roman born Cardinal Matteo Zuppi rose quickly through the ranks of the Catholic Church. So much so that he is now Archbishop of Bologna, one of the wealthiest dioceses in the world. He is also head of the Italian bishops’ conference.
Considered to be on the left of the Vatican’s political spectrum, Cardinal Zuppi established himself as a “street priest”. Known for caring for the less fortunate and marginalised, he often shared Pope Francis’s stance on social issues.
He has worked closely with the Community of Sant’Egidio, an association of lay people dedicated to conflict resolution. Cardinal Zuppi was one of four mediators who helped bring an end to the civil war in Mozambique and was also part of Pope Francis’s envoy for peace in Ukraine. However, by some members of the conclave he may be considered relatively inexperienced as a newcomer and too “modernist.”
Cardinal Erdo
Hungarian by birth and growing up under communism, Cardinal Peter Erdo is one of the main candidates of the conservative wing of the conclave. Made a cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003, he has played a role in two conclaves and has previously led the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences. He is currently the Archbishop of Budapest.
His election would mark a shift away from Pope Francis’s values, and a return to more traditional Catholic teachings and doctrine. Cardinal Erdo has previously drawn comparison between taking in migrants and human trafficking, and is outspoken against gay marriage. However, the College of Cardinals’ report notes Erdo as “keenly supporting” interfaith dialogue, especially with the Orthodox Church.
Other potential popes include: Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah, an ally of Pope Benedict XVI and key figure in the Vatican since 2001; Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a prominent figure in the African Church; or Italian Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the current Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem.
Only time will tell, and the world will only know when white smoke billows above Saint Peter’s. Pope Francis, then Cardinal Bergoglio, was not considered a favourite to be elected by the outside world. The Roman saying “who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal” is proof of the difficulty to predict the next pope; perhaps none of the aforementioned candidates will be elected. As long as the conclave remains locked in the Sistine Chapel and the inner workings of the Vatican are shrouded in secrecy, the entire process is unpredictable.