Overview:
The Global Affairs team share some of the most important weekly headlines that you may otherwise have missed.
Welcome back to Week 6’s edition of Outside OX1!
First of all, congratulations on getting through the 5th Week Blues! Whether you are taking a quick revision break or procrastinating on your dissertation (which I am definitely not guilty of…), the Global Affairs Team here at the Oxford Blue have compiled this week’s biggest stories for you to read at your leisure.
Major developments have occurred in the war in Sudan as the government-backed Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) broke a two-year-long siege on the strategic city of El-Obeid.
Over in Germany, political parties from across the spectrum are dwelling on their results from the 2025 federal elections. For full coverage of the results of the election, do not forget to check out the Oxford Blue’s in-depth analysis of how Germany voted!
Two major stories have developed across the Atlantic this week as US President Donald Trump continues to shake up Washington. The Pentagon has not been exempted from this shake-up, as the nation’s top military officer (among others) was ousted, an announcement that came alongside cuts to defence spending.
The infamous Guantánamo Bay detention centre has made a big return to the headlines in recent days as the Trump administration empties the facility of migrant detainees. This comes mere weeks after Trump first announced his efforts to use the facility to help with his mass deportation plans.
The world of football and politics have made another unlikely collision, with former Arsenal and Real Madrid midfielder Mesut Özil making his official entry into politics on the executive board of Türkiye’s ruling Justice and Development Party.
Finally, Pope Francis, the head of the Catholic Church, remains in critical condition after being hospitalised with pneumonia two weeks ago.
As you can see, a lot goes on Outside OX1. With the weather brightening up: grab a meal deal, sit in the sun, and scroll through the news…
Sudanese Armed Forces Lift Siege on Strategic City of El-Obeid
Katarina Harrison-Gaze
On February 23, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) announced they had broken a nearly two-year-long siege imposed on the southern city of El-Obeid by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has seen the displacement of over 11.5 million civilians and the deaths of between 20,000 and 61,000 people. Both the SAF and the RSF have been accused by human rights organisations and the UN of committing human rights violations, which may amount to crimes against humanity.
El-Obeid is considered a crucial city in the conflict. As the state capital of North Kordofan, El-Obeid sits at the intersection of various routes connecting Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, to the state of Darfur, a key RSF stronghold in west Sudan. The SAF are currently also in the process of recapturing Khartoum from RSF control.
Although the RSF has never captured El-Obeid, they had been in control of the surrounding countryside since April 2023, establishing roadblocks and effectively placing the city under siege. The city’s 450,000 people were left without food, water or electricity for nearly two years. Sudanese activist Dallia Abdlemoniem labelled the situation as “horrific”, given the city had been left without medical or food aid. Consequently, there were scenes of celebration as the SAF lifted the siege on the city.
Tactically, regaining El-Obeid is important to the SAF. In a post on Facebook, the Sudanese Finance Minister, Jibril Ibrahim, called the advancement a “strategic victory” which marks the move towards “a larger triumph.” He added that it was a “massive step” towards lifting the siege in Al-Fashir, the Darfur state capital. Anonymous military analysts speaking to the Middle East Eye said the SAF intended to use El-Obeid as a “springboard” for military operations in Darfur.
The lifting of the siege comes as the RSF signed an agreement in Nairobi, Kenya, with its allies, including the UAE, to establish a parallel “government of peace and unity”, a move which has led to the withdrawal of the Sudanese ambassador from Kenya and heavy criticism from the SAF.
Germany Decides: What’s Next After the Election?
Isolde Sellin
On Sunday, February 23, the Conservatives (CDU/CSU) won Germany’s federal election with 28.6% of the vote, making Friedrich Merz the most likely chancellor candidate.
Since no party holds an outright majority in parliament, the party with the most votes—the Conservatives—must form a coalition. The Conservatives have ruled out collaboration with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which came in second with 20.8%. This leaves the Social Democrats (SPD), who suffered their worst electoral defeat in history, as their only viable coalition partner.
Germany is accustomed to the SPD-CDU/CSU coalition, as it governed for 12 out of 16 years under Chancellor Merkel. Once called the “Grand Coalition,” its narrow majority now makes the term less fitting. Still, the Conservatives will rely on the SPD for a Bundestag majority, giving them leverage in negotiations to advance their agenda.
One major obstacle is the so-called “debt brake,” which limits Germany’s debt to 0.35% of its GDP.
The SPD—along with many economic experts and other left-of-centre parties—argues that Germany must invest significantly more to address infrastructure and defence.
Amending the constitutional provision requires a two-thirds majority in parliament—an impossible outcome without support from either the AfD or the Left Party. The AfD are unlikely to agree to loosen the debt brake , while the Left Party opposes increasing debt for military aid to Ukraine.
The Green Party especially has previously proposed reforming the “debt brake” with the outgoing parliament, but the democratic legitimacy of this has been questioned due to voter dissatisfaction with the former coalition.
Friedrich Merz has previously signalled some willingness to reconsider the “debt brake,” but currently appears more reluctant. He is pushing for a “special fund” for defence, which serves as a loophole to bypass the “debt brake,” allowing Germany to take on debt in cases of concrete urgency.
It remains unclear whether the parties will reach an agreement, as there is no unified position, even among Conservatives.
Beyond policy, the election has already had direct political consequences. Some politicians have taken responsibility for their results: Christian Lindner, leader of the Free Democrats (FDP), has announced his departure from politics after his party failed to meet the 5% threshold and was left out of parliament.
Robert Habeck of the Green Party will remain in parliament but has declined any prominent position. Similarly, Olaf Scholz (SPD) will stay on as chancellor until a new government takes office but will not be part of the team negotiating the coalition plans.
Friedrich Merz has set a goal of forming a new government by Easter. Given the challenges ahead, this timeline may prove ambitious.
Pentagon Shake-Up: Top US Military Officer Ousted
Brandon Abordo
Amidst President Donald Trump’s Pentagon shake-up, US Chairman to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Charles ‘CQ’ Brown, has been ousted as the nation’s top military officer on February 21.
Gen. Brown is joined by several top officers who have also been relieved of their positions, including the Chief of Naval Operations, Adm. Lisa Franchetti; the Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force, Gen. Jim Slife; and several senior members of the Judge Advocate General (JAG), such as Air Force Lt. Gen. Charles Plummer and Army Lt. Gen. Joseph Berger. JAGs are the top military lawyers responsible for setting each service’s legal priorities, interpreting military law for top leaders, and overseeing everything from rank-and-file criminal cases to ensuring that commanders are conscious of international law.
These removals were not due to any specific misconduct, but Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth told reporters that he did not want these officers to be “roadblocks to orders that are given by a commander in chief.”
Gen. Brown is slated to be replaced by retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Dan “Razin” Caine, who recently served as the CIA’s associate director for military affairs. The move defies tradition by appointing a retired officer as the nation’s top military officer. Lt. Gen. Caine also does not have the necessary credentials for the position, as he holds the rank of a three-star general, rather than a four-star general as required by the Goldwater-Nichols Act.
Secretary Hegseth had been openly critical of Gen. Brown’s appointment as chairman in the past, questioning whether he earned the position because he was black. Secretary Hegseth previously wrote in his book, The War on Warriors: “The military standards, once the hallmark for competency, professionalism, and ‘mission first’ outcomes, have officially been subsumed by woke priorities.” Gen. Brown had previously come under intense scrutiny after voicing public support for Black Lives Matter in the wake of the police killing of George Floyd, which made him a target in the Trump administration’s fight against “woke culture.”
Democratic Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island condemned the moves and commented: “Firing uniformed leaders as a type of political loyalty test, or for reasons relating to diversity and gender that have nothing to do with performance, erodes the trust and professionalism that our service members require to achieve their missions.”
On the same day as the firings amongst the nation’s top brass, the Pentagon announced plans to cut its budget, as well as 5-8% of its civilian staff (~45,000-60,000 of its more than 800,000), beginning with about 5,400 probationary workers to be laid-off as soon as the coming week.
Former Midfielder Mesut Özil Enters Erdoğan’s Political Ranks
Nick Marshall
Former Arsenal and Real Madrid midfielder Mesut Özil has officially entered Turkish politics after joining the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by President Recep Tayyeb Erdoğan.
According to Turkish state media, the German-born footballer was appointed as one of 39 new members of the Islamic-conservative party’s 75-member executive board at the AKP conference held in Ankara on February 23. This executive board primarily steers the AKP’s policy priorities and manages the party’s political and business relations to ensure the leader’s policies are well-implemented. The conference also saw Erdoğan re-elected as AKP Chairman, receiving all 1,547 votes for the position.
The executive board holds minor significance in Turkish politics after a constitutional amendment in 2017 changed Türkiye into a presidential political system rather than a parliamentary one, concentrating the majority of political power with Erdoğan. At the time, these amendments drew criticism from the EU and UK, who suggested that the constitutional reform would remove the necessary checks and balances needed to prevent the rise of authoritarianism.
Özil was born in Germany as a Turkish citizen. He rejected his Turkish citizenship when he was 19 in favour of German citizenship, which did not permit dual nationality at the time.
Özil’s relationship with Erdoğan has long been controversial. In 2018, a photo of Özil and İlkay Gündoğan, another German teammate of Turkish heritage, with Erdoğan caused controversy in Berlin as government officials questioned the players’ loyalty to Germany. Further, the German Football Association (DFB) said the players were allowing themselves to be exploited by Erdoğan for political purposes in the run-up to the 2018 Turkish presidential elections.
Özil, previously held as a model for multicultural Germany, responded to these claims, calling his critics in government and the DFB racist. Özil subsequently quit the German national team after the 2018 World Cup alongside Gündoğan, famously stating “I am German when we win, but I am an immigrant when we lose.”
Germany has the largest population of Turkish citizens living outside of Türkiye, with more than 1.5 million recorded in 2023. Turkish citizens in Germany overwhelmingly support the AKP, with 63% voting in favour of Erdoğan’s controversial constitutional reform in 2017, and 64.8% voting for Erdoğan to be president in the 2018 election. In comparison, only 21% of British Turks did the same.
In December 2017, the German government found “increased attempts by the Turkish state” under Erdoğan to influence the politics of German Turks. Consequently, Özil’s move into Turkish politics coincides with broadening concerns over the AKP’s influence and the integration of Turkish citizens in Germany.
Trump Administration Empties Guantánamo Bay of Migrants
Ria Seth
The Trump administration emptied out Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, of all immigrant detainees just hours after revealing to the Department of Justice the total number of detainees in military prison. This was partially due to concerns about the facility’s living conditions, which does not have electricity or air conditioning, and fails to meet the detention standards set by Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
The government began sending Venezuelan migrants apprehended on US soil to Guantánamo on February 4 as part of the Trump administration’s mass deportation efforts. A total of 178 migrants have since reached the site, 127 of whom were placed in Camp 6, where alleged Al-Qaeda combatants were originally held.
President Trump’s mass deportation agenda is based on his opinion that all undocumented immigrants are criminals. He said some of the immigrants sent to Guantánamo, “are so bad we don’t even trust the countries to hold them, because we don’t want them coming back.” The US government later acknowledged that more than 50 of the immigrants sent to Guantanamo had no criminal history other than illegal entry into the country.
Several immigrant rights groups filed lawsuits against the Trump administration to defend three of the Venezuelan migrants. The lawsuits claim that the detainees had no opportunity to contact family or legal assistance in the facility. The emergency motion pointed out that the conditions gave detainees less access to legal counsel than those held in Guantánamo “under the laws of war” in the aftermath of 9/11.
The transfer occurred before a judge could rule on the lawsuit. The Trump administration announced that all of the migrants had been deported to the Soto Cano Air Base in Honduras, from where they would then be taken back to Venezuela.
Senate Democrats have called President Trump’s migrant transfer “unlawful” and damaging to American values. They argued that US immigration law has no grounds to decide which noncitizens that are arrested in the US can be transferred out of the country prior to “conducting removal proceedings.” They stressed that the Trump administration did not take legal concerns into account throughout the process.
Recently, it was announced that US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, will soon be visiting Guantánamo Bay to receive briefings on “all mission operations,” including the current operation to transfer migrants to the base. The situation continues to develop.
Pope Francis’ Condition Remains Critical
Elana Roberts
In a statement released on February 22, the Vatican described the Pope’s condition as “critical”, emphasising “the Pope is not out of danger.”
The Pope was admitted to Agostino Gemelli Hospital in Rome on February 14 with bronchitis, which soon developed into pneumonia in both lungs. Furthermore, on February 24, the Vatican confirmed that the Pope was also suffering from “kidney insufficiency”. He has since recovered.
As a consequence, the Press Office has announced that the Jubilee Audience, which was due to occur on March 1, has been cancelled. The Jubilee Audience was one of many events scheduled for the 2025 Jubilee Year.
The Holy See noted that the pontiff continues to carry out his duties from his hospital room, including calling the Parish of Gaza every night as he has done since October 7 2023. As of February 27, his prognosis has continued to be “guarded”.
Pope Francis was elected in 2013 after his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, resigned due to age and health issues. Benedict was the first to voluntarily resign from the papacy since Celestine V in 1294. Pope Francis has previously said he believes “the pope’s ministry is for life.”, making this possibility following in his predecessor’s footsteps improbable.
Pope Francis has been susceptible to illness before. In 2024, he suffered from a mild case of the flu, which prevented him from engaging in several Lent and Easter celebrations.
Pope Francis’s papacy has been famed for his advocacy for the oppressed and his engagement with different communities. In a recent letter to U.S. bishops, the Pope disparaged President Trump’s “program of mass deportations”, calling on U.S. Catholics to support migrants and refugees and “not to give in to narratives that discriminate against and cause unnecessary suffering to our migrant and refugee brothers and sisters.”
Pope Francis has also criticised the church for its fixation on matters such as abortion, birth control, and LGBTQIA+ rights. In 2023, he challenged laws that criminalised homosexuality, calling them “unjust”. There is a great concern that his successor may not share his opinions, allowing conservative factions to gain more power in the Church.
There is no doubt that the current Pope has supporters though. The Vatican has announced that the cardinals in Rome have begun a daily prayer vigil for the Pope’s health. These prayer vigils have been shared around the world, with the words “Francis, the city prays for you” (translated from Spanish) projected onto the Obelisco in Buenos Aires, the capital of Pope’s native Argentina.
On This Day in Global Affairs…
On February 28, 1947, an anti-government uprising in Taiwan was violently suppressed by the Kuomintang-led nationalist government of the Republic of China (ROC).
After World War II, Taiwan was transferred from the control of the Japanese Empire to the ROC, led by the Kuomintang (KMT). Many residents became frustrated with the government, citing issues of corruption and mismanagement.
The incident arose after a woman selling allegedly untaxed cigarettes on February 27 was assaulted by government agents, triggering a public confrontation. A KMT officer shot into the crowd, hitting a man who died the next day.
Protests then erupted, calling for political reform. The KMT responded by deploying military reinforcements from mainland China, and estimates suggest that between 18,000-28,000 people died thereafter.
Two years later, Taiwan was placed under martial law, leading to a period known as the “White Terror,” which lasted for 38 years.
After martial law was lifted, Taiwan gradually democratised, and the events of February 28 are now widely discussed. February 28 is now a public holiday on the island, called “Peace Memorial Day”, on which Taiwan’s president gathers with officials to ring a commemorative bell in honour of the victims.
In 2004, the day was marked by the 228 Hand-in-Hand rally, where a human chain made up of 1.2 million participants was formed to commemorate the incident and call for peace. Inspired by the Baltic Way, this became the largest rally in Taiwanese history.
Thank you for making it to the end of this week’s Outside OX1, see you next week for more stories!