Overview:
The Global Affairs team share some of the most important weekly headlines that you may otherwise have missed.
The Editor’s Note
Roses are red,
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Welcome back to Outside OX1 for Week 4!
However you may be spending Valentine’s Day, the Global Affairs team here at the Oxford Blue has compiled stories from across the globe with more variation than OX1’s notorious(ly dire) Hinge dating scene.
This week appears no different from the many other headline-grabbing stories we have seen about the new president across the pond. This week, the announcement of plans to shut down the US Agency for International Development, USAID, has plunged much of the world who relies on their programmes into disarray.
Sticking with Trump, the US President has met with Jordanian King Abdullah II, doubling down on his plans for the relocation of Gazans to King Abdullah’s home country and Egypt. Nonetheless, the Jordanian monarch seems strong in his support for the two-state solution.
Looking towards the world of elections, two major changes have occurred over this week. In the Balkan state of Kosovo, incumbent Prime Minister Albin Kurti has lost his outright majority in the country’s parliamentary elections. Looking to India’s National Capital Territory, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party has won a majority in Delhi for the first time in 27 years, marking a devastating loss for the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party.
Ground-shaking scenes are also being observed in Greece (quite literally) as earthquakes persist on the island of Santorini, a touristic hotspot. Whether a major earthquake will occur still remains unknown.
As you can see, a lot goes on Outside OX1. Regardless of what you receive from your situationship today, we’re here to deliver something more reliable—your weekly fix of Global Affairs…
Trump’s Executive Order Freezes USAID: Global Aid at Risk
Isolde Sellin
The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is at risk of being dismantled after President Donald Trump announced his intention to shut it down. Through an executive order signed on January 28, all foreign aid agencies have been paused for 90 days to allow for the “re-evaluation and realignment of United States foreign aid.” USAID’s website has already gone offline, funding has been frozen, some employees have been suspended, and others no longer possess access to the headquarters in Washington, D.C.
The closure is part of the “efficiency strategy” overseen by Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk has called USAID a “criminal organisation,” and posted on X that it is “time for it to die.” On Truth Social, Trump’s social media platform, he wrote: “CLOSE IT DOWN!” He had previously claimed that the agency was “run by radical lunatics.”
Founded in 1961 by President John F. Kennedy, USAID. is the United States’ primary agency for international development and humanitarian aid. It was established as part of the United States’ broader strategy to counter Soviet influence by promoting economic development and political stability in emerging nations, reinforcing alliances, and demonstrating the benefits of democratic governance over communism. Today, the agency operates in more than 100 countries, assisting in disaster relief, global health, economic development, and democratic governance.
US contributions account for 42% of the humanitarian aid tracked globally by the United Nations. Although the US is the world’s largest contributor to humanitarian aid—disbursing $72 billion in assistance in 2023—this amount represents only a small percentage of its gross domestic product.
Critics of the closure have not only expressed concerns for those who rely on US aid but also warned that it could weaken the United States in the long run. By supporting international development, the agency helps strengthen new markets for the US worldwide. Moreover, countries in need may turn to China or Russia for support, potentially increasing their global influence. Proponents of the idea, on the other hand, support Musk and Trump’s accusations that the agency unnecessarily spends taxpayer money on pointless projects. Some projects that have been particularly criticised include support for LGBTQ+ communities and sustainability initiatives.
It remains unclear whether the agency’s elimination is even legally possible. Leading Democrats view the actions of Musk’s department as unconstitutional, with some describing them as a “hostile takeover” or a coup in progress, as Musk has already begun targeting other agencies.
With the agency’s operations frozen, people in need worldwide are at risk, including those in Gaza, where foreign aid is crucial for survival. Former USAID mission director for Gaza, David Harden, told The New York Times: “Lifesaving aid to Gaza is going to be disrupted.” Of the 1,000 USAID employees organising aid supplies globally, only 70 remain. The delivery of food, medicine, and other essential supplies is expected to slow significantly.
Kosovan Parliamentary Election: Kurti Fails to Win Majority
Brandon Abordo
Incumbent Prime Minister Albin Kurti and his Vetëvendosje party (VV) have declared victory in Kosovo’s parliamentary election, despite failing to take the majority of seats needed to govern alone.
The VV is on course to win ~41% of the vote after ~93% of the total votes have been counted. In second, the right-wing Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) accounted for ~22% of the votes, whilst the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) followed with ~18%. The Serb List party also succeeded in winning all 10 of the seats reserved for Kosovo’s ethnic Serbs.
As one of the poorest countries in Europe, the Kosovan parliamentary election saw candidates promising to increase salaries and invest more in public infrastructure, education, and healthcare, amongst many other things. However, Prime Minister Kurti’s previous tenure was also marked with turbulence and unrest, stemming from aggravations of pre-existing tension with Serbia—serving as another point of contention during the election.
These tensions date back to the 1990s when Kosovo fought to break away from Serbia. Kosovo eventually declared its independence in 2008, which was recognised by the US and the EU, but not by Serbia and its Russian and Chinese backers.
Specifically, Prime Minister Kurti’s tenure saw the failure of US and EU-backed negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia in 2023, resulting in the assault of NATO peacekeepers, and the launch of a concerted effort by Kurti to dismantle Serbian-backed institutions in Kosovo. Prime Minister Kurti’s actions only served to worsen relations with the US and the EU due to his consistent escalations in regional and ethnic conflicts.
Opposition parties have long criticised Prime Minister Kurti’s confrontational approach with Serbia, and have advocated instead for conciliation to avoid straining Western relations. However, since the count in the recent election, Serbian President Aleksander Vučić has congratulated the Serb List party, stating, “…this is a great and important victory for Serbia, clearly demonstrating the Serbian people’s commitment to protecting their homes, their reliance on Serbia, their belief in having only one homeland, one president, and their unwavering love for their country.”
Experts warn of the possibility of a prolonged political crisis as Prime Minister Kurti had previously ruled out working with the opposition parties necessary to form a coalition government. Political analyst, Leart Hoxha, believes that the VV would likely be in no rush to form a coalition, and would serve as a “caretaker government” while the opposition parties squabble. Hoxha also predicts that: “This will be a year that will be wasted; it will be a government that will not be able to push for major projects.” In Prime Minister Kurti’s second term, he will continue to deal with regional tension with Serbia, alongside severe economic, international, and domestic pressure.
Modi’s BJP Comes to Power in Delhi after 27 Years
Ria Seth
For the first time in 27 years, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has regained power in Delhi, India’s capital city. BJP won 48 of the 70 seats in the legislative assembly, exceeding the required 36 seats for a party to take government. This was a major loss for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), an anti-BJP opposition party led by Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. AAP only won 22 seats, down from 63 in 2020.
The AAP has governed Delhi since 2013, with voters supportive of the AAP’s record of organising welfare policies and anti-corruption movements. However, AAP leaders have recently been under scrutiny with allegations of corruption, presenting several challenges for the party. Before the parliamentary elections last year, Kejriwal was arrested on corruption charges related to the liquor policy in Delhi, though he denied the allegations.
Ahead of the election, campaigns organised by the two parties have been competing for popularity among key groups within the Delhi electorate, The AAP highlighted its work on enhancing education in Delhi by improving schools and providing students with transportation subsidies. It also promised women monthly financial stipends, along with free healthcare for all citizens past a certain age.
To counter the AAP, the BJP promised even more financial help for women, subsidies on gas cylinders, and insurance for taxi drivers. This was a tactical move, as taxi drivers comprised a sizeable portion of the AAP’s past supporters.
Kejriwal reacted to the election results by saying that AAP accepted the “mandate of the people with great humility”, and congratulated BJP on the victory. Amit Shah, who previously served as president of the BJP and is now India’s home minister, stated the BJP’s victory was “a sign of the people’s faith” in Modi’s leadership and vision for India’s future progress.
The significance of this election for the two competing parties lies in the symbolic importance of Delhi as the nation’s capital. Not only is Delhi the centre of political power in India, but it also has a substantial population of over 33 million people, a sizeable proportion of which are from varied regions of the country. Thus, BJP’s win is representative of more than just electoral success. Winning in Delhi after 27 years of being out of power represents the BJP’s growing popularity and power across India.
President Trump Meets with King Abdullah II of Jordan
Katarina Harrison-Gaze
US President Donald Trump met with King Abdullah II of Jordan on February 11 at the White House to discuss relations between the two countries, Trump’s “Gaza Plan,” and the broader geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
King Abdullah is the first Arab leader to meet with President Trump since Trump’s second term began. It was also the first meeting between the two since Trump announced his plan on January 25 to “clean out” and “take over” the Gaza Strip to turn it into a “Riviera of the Middle East.” Trump’s suggestion includes the permanent relocation of Gazans to neighbouring countries Jordan and Egypt. Jordan, a US ally, is already home to over 2.3 million Palestinian refugees.
During the meeting, Trump doubled down on his intended plans for the permanent relocation of Gazans, which marked a break from the decades-long US foreign policy of a two-state solution. Last week, when asked about Trump’s plans, UN spokesman, Stéphane Dujarric, said that “any forced displacement of people is tantamount to ethnic cleansing” and is in breach of international law.
Trump previously suggested withholding economic aid from Jordan and Egypt, unless they agree to his relocation plans. In a press conference after the meeting, Trump said the US was “above that”, but despite this, the $1.45 billion annual aid Jordan receives from the USA is currently frozen whilst the Trump administration reviews foreign aid.
When asked by journalists about his opinion on Trump’s plans, King Abdullah said he had to look after his country’s “best interests.” He prompted Trump to “keep in mind” that Egypt and other Arab countries have a plan to see the rebuilding of the Gaza Strip without the relocation of Gazans. The meeting concluded with King Abdullah announcing that Jordan would take in 2,000 Gazan children in need of medical care, a diplomatic move which Trump labelled as “music to [his] ears.”
Following the meeting, King Abdullah published a series of tweets on X in which he said the two leaders had discussed the “longstanding partnership” between the two countries, which King Abdullah described as “a partnership for stability, peace, and mutual security.” However, he also reiterated the “unified Arab position” against the displacement of Palestinians, both in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. He stressed that “rebuilding Gaza without displacing the Palestinians and addressing the dire humanitarian situation should be the priority for all.”
King Abdullah said that the only way to “ensure regional stability” was the “two-state solution”, which would require “US leadership”.This meeting comes as the recent ceasefire in Gaza risks falling apart, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to resume the bombing of Gaza if Hamas does not release more hostages by February 15.
Santorini Earthquakes Continue with Little Explanation
Elana Roberts
On February 6, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis declared a state of emergency in Santorini as concerns over continuous tremors reached a peak the day before: seismologists recorded the highest magnitude earthquake yet, clocking in at a magnitude of 5.2. The state of emergency is expected to last until March 3.
Santorini is a Greek island and popular tourist destination approximately 150 miles southeast of Athens. Located in the Aegean Sea, it is not far from the deepwater Hellenic Trench, a destructive convergent boundary where the African plate is being subducted beneath the Aegean one. This boundary is a source of constant volcanic and seismic activity. Santorini itself is found on the Santorini-Amorgos fault zone, known for producing high-magnitude earthquakes.
The Amorgos fault line was responsible for the 7.8 magnitude earthquake which destroyed Santorini in 1956, damaging more than 3,200 buildings and causing 54 people to lose their lives. Experts have reassured residents fearing a repeat of 1956 that the current earthquakes are not being triggered by the same fault line. However, the most recent series of earthquakes has seen atypical variation in the locations of earthquake epicentres, beginning on Santorini but rapidly going offshore. The epicentre of the most severe earthquake recorded yet in this episode, the shallow 5.3 magnitude earthquake on February 10, was located in the sea between Santorini and Amorgos, a neighbouring island. It is precisely this increased variability in epicentre locations combined with the rapid succession of quakes of similar magnitudes (known as an “earthquake swarm”) that has left experts perplexed and concerned.
Between January 26 and February 8, over 12,800 earthquakes were recorded by the Seismology Laboratory of the University of Athens. On February 10, the Director of the Institute of Geodynamics at the National Observatory of Athens, Vassilis Karastathis, suggested that there were signs of stabilisation, relying on the fact that the high frequency of the tremors meant a large amount of seismic energy had already been released. On the other hand, he also emphasised that it was impossible to reliably predict where the earthquakes would occur, their magnitudes or when they would be likely to stop.
Due to this uncertainty, 13,000 of the island’s 15,000 residents have already been evacuated, and all of the schools on Santorini and nearby islands have temporarily closed their doors. Advice for those staying behind includes staying away from the coast and other exposed areas due to the risk of landslides. Some residents have even taken to patrolling potentially unstable cliffs to prevent tourists from putting themselves in danger when taking photos and videos.
With the earthquakes showing few signs of relenting, more and more people are losing faith in them dissipating without causing significant damage to the island. For now, all that is left to do is wait and hope that an earthquake of more severe magnitude (6.0 and above on the Richter scale) does not materialise.
On This Day in Global Affairs…
On this day, February 14, in 2018, Jacob Zuma resigned as President of South Africa after immense pressure to step down from his party, the African National Congress.
Facing a no-confidence vote and calls to make way for Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, Zuma, aged 75 at the time, gave a televised address to the nation announcing his decision.
Zuma began his political career as an anti-apartheid activist, and became President in 2009. Although his presidency was due to end in 2019, economic decline and multiple charges of graft and corruption undermined his legacy and ultimately damaged his party’s reputation.
Thank you for making it to the end of this week’s Outside OX1, see you next week for more stories!