Editor’s note
We know, we know. Saturday passed and still no Outside OX1 came. We may be a day late, but we’re here again to bring you all the news from Israel to Africa, and a bit about Trump too.
As the humanitarian crisis becomes more desperate in Gaza, Netanyahu has conceded to allowing aid into country. However, international relations are becoming increasingly tense for Israel as they have been left out of Trump’s Middle East visit and are being more severely condoned by Europe. Netanyahu has lashed out against some of his allies, including the UK. However questions around his firm stance are arising as pressure builds on Israel’s prime minister.
Speaking of Trump, he was delighted to pass his “One Big Beautiful Bill” this week. Nevertheless, despite its catchiness, this bill could prove rather ugly for the United States; the tax cuts it promises will add to the country’s already enormous debt figure, and public services will suffer from less federal spending. However, Republicans vow the bill will be a “turning point” for Americans as it aims to increase domestic manufacturing.
Meanwhile in Africa, meetings are expected to take place over the coming days about how to propel the continent’s economy. One of the biggest challenges Africa currently faces is corruption. So how will delegates try to address these issues? What does the situation tell us about African politics generally? And what will the consequences be if nothing is done?
Israel Faces Growing International Pressure to Allow Aid to Gaza
Elana Roberts
On Sunday 18 May, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu’s office announced that the blockade on all goods and supplies to Gaza will be minimally lifted to allow a “basic amount of food”. This decision follows mounting international pressure to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.
The blockade was first instituted on 2 March after the original ceasefire negotiations began to break down, meaning it has been in place for 11 weeks. The Oxford Blue reported further on the negotiations here.
Contrary to what Israel may have expected, the decision to allow this ‘basic amount’ into Gaza has not reduced international criticism or de-escalated the issue. This is because the amount of aid being allowed to enter Gaza is still disproportionate to the enormous scale of need, as 2.1 million people survive on the brink of starvation.
Israel claims that around 300 trucks of aid have been allowed to enter Gaza since the blockade was lifted. However, UN Secretary-General António Guterres says that only a third of these trucks have safely reached warehouses within Gaza from which the resources can be distributed. On Friday, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) stated that 15 of its trucks had been looted on their way to bakeries supported by the WFP.
Several countries have called for Israel to cease all military operations in Gaza altogether to facilitate humanitarian aid reaching the Gazan people. On Tuesday, the leaders of Britain, France and Canada released a statement cautioning Israel that the continuation of aid restrictions could lead to consequences such as economic sanctions. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer went further to call the situation in Gaza “intolerable”.
Netenyahu’s response was rapid and vicious, accusing French President Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, and Starmer of “supporting mass murderers, rapists, baby killers and kidnappers”.
Tensions were only heightened last Wednesday night as two Israeli embassy staff were shot outside the Jewish Museum in Washington DC. The motivation behind the killings is currently being investigated. However, Washington DC Metropolitan Police chief, Pamela Smith, has stated that after opening fire, the suspect entered the museum and chanted “Free, free Palestine”.
Israel’s foreign minister, Gideon Sa’ar, blamed the “leaders and officials of many countries and international organizations, especially from Europe” for criticising the Israeli government and, in his view, condoning such acts of violence. This was likely referring to the statement released on Tuesday.
It is clear that tensions are rising—as more countries openly criticise Israel’s actions, Israel responds in increasingly antagonistic ways. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent diplomatic visit to the Middle East also did not include Israel, which some analysts say demonstrates a pivot away from cooperating with Netenyahu. This signaling may further embolden other countries to openly criticise Netenyahu’s decisions.
However, it is important to remember that Gaza’s need only grows more urgent as the humanitarian situation worsens.
In a post on X, the World Health Organization stated that 94% of all hospitals in the Gaza Strip are operating at limited capacity. Concerns are also rising about water scarcity as the amount of fuel available to desalination plants steadily depletes, with no indication of more being delivered in the future.
For more information, Jonathan Freedland’s article on the ‘biblical hatred’ rising on both sides is an interesting read, partly in conversation with Hussein Agha, a senior Associate Member of St Antony’s College, Oxford.
The Cost of Borrowing: American Debt
Tom Barrett
On 22 May, cheers erupted in Washington as legislators in the House of Representatives passed Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’. Meanwhile, on Wall Street, New York, eyebrows began to rise.
A new set of sweeping tax cuts—on top of the extension of the Trump 2017 tax cuts – project U.S. debt to skyrocket, and it seems investors are starting to take note. American debt, when Trump first entered office in 2016, has exploded since 2020 due to the costs of the Pandemic. Moreover, persistently high interest rates mean the cost of servicing this debt has more than tripled from 2017 to a high of $882 billion. This trend only seems to be worsening, with 30 year bonds seeing yields of 5.35 percent, almost the highest cost in 20 years when U.S. debt was a fraction of the current amount. Today, 13 percent of the federal budget in the U.S. is spent on servicing debt.
With costs increasing, and the deficit only looking to increase, investors have become increasingly critical of the debt position. Traditionally an extremely studied asset, demand for new U.S. treasuries has been eerily weak, resulting in increased costs of yields. International investors, especially in Japan, have started to look more critically at the dollar. The questions is starting to be asked—who is going to finance U.S. debt?
The dollar has slumped recently, falling 1.9 percent in just five days, the biggest fall since Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements. Lee Hardman, currency analyst at the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group says this comes from “renewed investor concerns over the US fiscal outlook”, though this narrative is challenged by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who argues this is more to do with currency changes in Europe and Japan than America. While this is in line with Trump’s aim to devalue the dollar to boost domestic manufacturing, the result of this sell off is increased market skepticism rather than competitive devaluation.
Much of this comes with the flagship ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’, which has just passed by one vote in the House of Representatives. It aims to balance the tax cuts with reductions in welfare programs like Medicare, SNAP, Food Stamps as well as Biden-era renewable energy funding. These are likely to leave 8.6 million people without healthcare coverage, and analysis from the Congressional Budget Office anticipates incomes for the bottom 10% of Americans by 2% in 2027 and 4% in 2033 as a result of the bill. However, that isn’t to give you the illusion that this is a bill on a balanced budget. In 10 years the bill is estimated to result in a $4 trillion increase in the U.S. debt, greater than the GDP of the UK, while making just $1 trillion in savings. The White House Council of Economic Advisors claims that the bill will largely pay for itself, projecting an enormous 5.2% economic growth rate as a result, though these projections seem wildly optimistic.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has called the act a “transformational change that future generations will study one day. They’ll look back at this day as a turning point in American history”. He might well be right, but if it fails to result in substantial GDP growth, then future generations might study this act, just not in the way he predicts
Overall, catastrophic outcomes some have projected such as a U.S. default seem extremely unlikely, but without substantial changes in economic policy, it seems the United States might be sucked into a debt spiral where increased servicing costs force increases in borrowing, leading to a destructive debt crisis loop.
The Cost of Corruption: A Barrier to Africa’s Development
Daniel Burns
Corruption is a global scourge: over 5 percent of GDP is stolen per annum, with $1 trillion being paid in bribes each year. Africa, and in particular the Sub-Saharan region, is feeling the effects as it has faced a very poor corruption perception index (CPI) of 33 since 2023.
From 26–30 May, more than 6,000 delegates will attend the African Bank of Development’s (AfBD) 2025 annual meetings. Under the theme “Making Africa’s Capital Work Better for Africa’s Development,” the meetings will aim to promote green and inclusive economies by better utilising Africa’s resources. So how will corruption fit into the discussions?
According to the AfBD, corruption costs Africa approximately 25 percent of its GDP every year. It not only undermines Africa’s development potential but also harms people’s daily lives. This is most visible in public services.
For example, bribes are often paid for better marks in exams, unfairly regarding those who cannot—or will not—pay. On average though, it is in courts and the police service where corruption is most prevalent. This means crimes such as drug-trafficking and fraud are much more risk-free and therefore common in the region. Even worse is that corruption is disproportionately felt by the poorest in society; poor public service users pay bribes twice as often as rich users.
However, it would be misleading to draw the picture with a single brush. There are parts of Africa which have massively cracked down on corruption in the last few years, such as Seychelles and Cabo Verde. Others—particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, such as South Sudan and Somalia—remain among the most corrupt countries in the world.
These latter countries lie within Africa’s so-called “coup-belt”, exposing some of the deeper political causes of corruption. In more democratic countries, corruption tends to be less widespread as there are fairer systems for getting into power. Additionally, when in power, the freedom of press ensures there is accountability on those responsible and democratic systems to guarantee everyone is treated equally.
However, in authoritarian governments, corruption spreads more easily as the executive, the judiciary, and the police become intertwined. Subsequently, their interests begin to correlate.
Côte d-Ivoire has been massively successful at eliminating corruption as President Alassane Ouattara has promoted transparency and accountability against financial crime. Meanwhile, Lesotho has suffered setbacks as freedom of speech has been attacked by the government.
Corruption has not just been a problem in Africa though—it is felt in every country on different levels. A more nuanced but highly significant way that it does this is through climate action. The Basel Institute of Governance reported that an estimated $100 billion is stolen from climate policies annually because of corruption.
This is not just about stolen funds though, nor just about what is happening in ‘more corrupt’ countries. In 2022, the UK Conservative Party received US$4.3 million from high-pollution industries. This kind of payment disincentivises pro-climate policies as personal or party interest override environmental policy goals.
Of course, while felt globally, climate change will hit African countries harder than in Europe. Senegal and Tanzania have already suffered devastating floods in 2023 and 2024.
To bring this all together, corruption is a massively pervasive force in ordinary people’s lives and in government administration. In particular, it affects climate policy. But with more democratic systems, corruption can be tackled. Yet time is short. As climate change accelerates, the urgency for reform grows. Whether Africa can rise to the challenge remains to be seen.