In just five weeks, Germany will vote for its next parliament, determining the country’s next chancellor. One thing is already certain: whoever takes on the role will not be popular. Among the candidates, it seems less like a race for the top spot and more like a contest to avoid being the least favoured choice for chancellor.
Shortly before the last federal election, over 40% of people believed Scholz would make a good chancellor. Now, at a similar moment before election day, only 16% of the population would vote for him directly as chancellor. However, low approval rates apply to every candidate, considering that the candidates from the Conservative and Green parties are “leading” the polls with 23%, which is remarkable. It would still be an exaggeration to say that the Germans are not excited about their choices.
But who are the candidates? And who has the best chance of actually becoming chancellor—popular or not?
The Survivor
Let’s start with the incumbent. Olaf Scholz was the chancellor of one of the most unpopular government coalitions of all time. Shortly before the so-called “traffic-light coalition” (Ampelkoalition), made up of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Green Party, and the Liberal Party (FDP), collapsed, only 14% of Germans expressed satisfaction with their government’s performance. In other words, early elections became almost inevitable.
However, Scholz still seems convinced that he will become the next chancellor, stating so on multiple occasions. This, for some observers, seems surprisingly confident considering his and his party’s approval ratings. Additionally, he has not always had, and still does not have, the full support of his own party.
In November and December, rumours nearly led to his replacement by Boris Pistorius, the current Minister of Defence and one of Germany’s most popular politicians in the polls for months. Since even members of the SPD itself seemed not to fully support Olaf Scholz, the question of whether the candidate would change, similar to the process in the US, was prevalent for a couple of weeks and was reinforced by the media. This did not seem to help Scholz’s popularity, as people within his party appeared to lack confidence in his ability to win the election again.
After the debates surrounding the candidate question were resolved, discussions about their actual ideas began. However, while the last election campaign was centred around the word “Respect,” referring to policies such as raising the minimum wage and stabilising pensions, some critics now argue that Scholz and his party lack concrete ideas.
Their current plan includes strengthening the economy through a so-called “Made-in-Germany Bonus,” which would provide financial incentives to companies investing in manufacturing and technology in Germany. Additionally, Scholz is advocating for lower energy prices and faster bureaucratic processes.
The SPD is currently polling at around 15% (as of January 18, 2025)—more than 10% lower than their result in the last federal election in 2021. This places them third behind the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). To be fair, in 2021, Scholz and his party also trailed in the polls for months and only secured victory in the end because Scholz managed to avoid public missteps, unlike the other candidates.
Still, while the SPD is attempting to project optimism and reassure everyone that they still have a chance, they are well aware that the turnaround in the polls in 2021 had already begun by this point.
The Stubborn
The person who, according to the polls, actually has a chance to lead the next government is Friedrich Merz. He may be unpopular, but he is certainly not unknown in Germany. When he became the leader of the CDU in 2022, some people might have sighed, “Him… again.” Even Angela Merkel might have thought the same.
After all, she effectively pushed him out of top-level politics in the early 2000s due to a leadership struggle. Not only did both of them want to pursue their careers, targeting similar positions, but it was also a struggle for direction within the party. While Merkel was seen as quite liberal, Merz belongs to the conservative faction within the Union. With his election, the CDU decided to turn away from Merkel’s path, prominently criticising her migration policies.
When her retirement loomed on the horizon, he made a comeback—but his efforts were initially unsuccessful. In both 2018 and 2020, he lost the race for CDU leadership. Finally, in 2022, he succeeded, becoming not only the party leader but also the head of its parliamentary faction—a role he had held 20 years earlier.
Now, at 67 years old and with no experience in government leadership, he is running for chancellor. Nevertheless, he is campaigning from a convenient position, criticising the unpopular performance of the previous government and proposing measures to lift the economy out of its struggles.
The CDU/CSU’s manifesto outlines initiatives to lower taxes for wealthy individuals and corporations, introducing an “active retirement” policy that allows retirees to work up to a specific monthly income without being taxed, and reducing bureaucracy. Additionally, he aims to strengthen key industries, such as the automobile sector. According to his programme, the EU ban on cars with combustion engines should be repealed.
The Improbable
Robert Habeck is the chancellor candidate from the Green Party. Strangely, the Green Party is polling at about the same percentage as the SPD, but, in contrast to Olaf Scholz, he doesn’t rely on making a turnaround and winning after all. He doesn’t even refer to himself as a “chancellor candidate,” but as a “candidate for the people of Germany,” acknowledging that he has no real chance of becoming chancellor.
However, at the moment, his party is climbing in the polls and even has a chance of moving into third place, pushing the incumbent’s party down to fourth. Habeck is the current Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sudden realisation that Germany had been dependent on Russian energy for years, he had perhaps one of the most difficult ministerial positions. He managed to guide Germany through the energy crisis, with rising prices, but without the blackouts some had feared.
Currently, Habeck is advocating for a significant increase in defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, which is not too far from Trump’s NATO demand of 5%. In addition, the Green Party is calling for a reform of the so-called “debt brake,” which would allow Germany to invest more in infrastructure, education, policies to combat climate change, and more. Some critics argue that this would be unfair to future generations, as they would be responsible for repaying the debt. Proponents, however, argue that it would be far more unfair to leave them with a future marked by insufficient investments.
The Provocative
And lastly, there is the leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) running, a party partly classified as right-extremist by the Federal Constitutional Court: Alice Weidel. Recently, they distributed “deportation tickets” to mailboxes of people with names that might suggest a non-German family background in the city of Karlsruhe. At first glance, the tickets seemed like regular flight tickets, but a closer inspection revealed them as part of a deeply racist campaign.
With 16%, Weidel is currently last among the chancellor candidates in the polls, but she is only 1% behind Olaf Scholz. However, her party has been gaining strength recently, now polling at 20%.
Although the party knows it will most likely neither win the election nor be part of a coalition—since their only possible coalition partner, the CDU/CSU, has firmly stated they will not work with them—they are already eyeing the next election in 2029. They believe that by then, there will be no way to exclude them from the government. Developments in Austria have reassured the AfD, with the country’s far-right party, the FPÖ, being on track to potentially become the chancellor party for the first time.
Besides their strong positions against migration—advocating for the concept of ‘remigration,’ which stems from the new right movement—they also want to stop any sanctions against Russia and promote the traditional family structure of father, mother, and child. Weidel, who is married to a woman and is raising children with her, appears to be untouched by any contradictions between her own family concept and the party’s stance.
Germany is about to vote on its future direction in terms of the economy, defence, and climate. Even though climate change is a topic that is widely overlooked by the candidates, it was one of the most important issues in the federal election of 2021. But no matter who becomes the next chancellor, this election will go down in history as the one in which no candidate was truly wanted. Currently, there is a growing disillusionment with politics, which is strengthening populist parties such as the AfD. The question remains whether the next government can reverse this trend and whether there will come a time when the people of Germany actually want to vote for someone, rather than simply voting for their least disliked option.