Overview:
The Global Affairs team share some of the most important weekly headlines that you may otherwise have missed.
A note from the editor
This week, Outside OX1 covers, a ceasefire in Lebanon, elections in Romania, the ICC arrest warrant, and deaths from drinking methanol in Laos.
As usual, a lot goes on outside of OX1, and we hope this week’s Outside OX1 helps to explain some of them! This will be the last Outside OX1 of Michaelmas, so I hope you have enjoyed The Blue’s weekly compilation of stories from across the world.
Hezbollah and Israel reach ceasefire agreement
Katarina Harrison-Gaze
Hezbollah and Israel reached a ceasefire agreement on Nov. 26, hours after 20 bombs hit the southern suburbs of Beirut in 120 seconds.
The conflict between Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed terrorist group, and Israel has been Lebanon’s deadliest conflict in decades, with a current death toll of 3,823 and over one million people displaced according to local officials. The conflict was triggered by the war in the Gaza Strip, after Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel following the Israeli Defence Force’s ground invasion of Gaza.
The terms of the ceasefire will see Hezbollah remove its fighters and weapons from the area between the unofficial border between Lebanon and Israel, known as the Blue Line, and the Litani river, situated about 20 miles to the north. They have 60 days to do so. Israel is also required to withdraw its remaining forces from Lebanon in the same time frame. It echoes the UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which was introduced in 2006 to stop war in the region, however both sides have since repeatedly violated the terms.
Under the agreement, Lebanon is expected to move 5,000 troops to the south of the country to replace Hezbollah fighters and become the only armed force in the region, however the Lebanese army has said it does not have the resources to fulfil its obligations. On Nov. 27, the Lebanese army began moving troops southwards.
In a series of posts on X, Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, said that the ceasefire was a “fundamental step towards restoring calm and stability in Lebanon,” stressing the country’s commitment to a truce. He added that Lebanese people “have the right to go back to their land, to their villages and to live there peacefully,” before highlighting the need for a new president to be elected immediately in order to usher in wider stability. Lebanon has been without a head of state since October 2022.
Speaking to the BBC Ibrahim al-Mousawi, a Hezbollah MP, said the ceasefire was agreed upon because “[we] wanted to see the end of the carnage and the genocide against the civilians” and emphasised they were willing to comply with the terms of the agreement.
Hamas officials released a statement in which they praised the truce, saying they hoped it would “pave the way to reaching a ceasefire that ends the genocide against our people in Gaza.”
Countries worldwide have welcomed the ceasefire agreement, including other Arab states, Russia, Iran and the USA. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, said the ceasefire put an end to “the oppression and criminal bombings by the Zionist regime.” Jake Sullivan, America’s outgoing national security adviser, said the ceasefire took “weeks and months” of diplomacy, adding that it was important to assure “Israel’s security” as well as prevent a situation where the United States was “dragged into a war in the Middle East.”
However, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that “if Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack.” American President, Joe Biden, echoed the sentiment, saying “if Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israel, then Israel retains the right to self-defence consistent with international law.”
France and the USA are expected to oversee the implementation of the truce. It is hoped that this ceasefire will last and bring about peace in the region, however previous agreements between Israel and Lebanon have been violated by both sides. Following the news of the agreement, many countries are now calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Pro-Russian, far-right independent candidate takes a shock lead in Romania’s presidential election
Nick Marshall
Far-right, pro-Russia independent candidate Cǎlin Georgescu took a surprise lead in the first round of Romania’s presidential election on Sunday, November 24th with 22.94% of the votes, according to the Central Electoral Bureau.
He was closely followed by centre-right candidate Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union (USR), and populist social democrat (PSD) Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, the pre-election favourite, who won 19.18% and 19.15% of the vote, respectively. After suffering such a defeat in the first round, Ciolacu tendered his resignation as leader of the PSD on Monday, November 25th. Lasconi and Georgescu will therefore face one another in a final run-off for the presidency on December 8th as neither candidate secured the minimum 50% of the vote required to win the election outright.
This result drastically differed from pre-election opinion polls, which placed Georgescu at around 5% of the popular vote. Since the result, Georgescu has stated that the people had “cried out for peace […] and they shouted very loudly, extremely loudly,” referring to his key campaign promise of ending military aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia. Georgescu enjoyed particularly strong support from the Romanian diaspora, who are typically more staunch nationalists than Romanians within Romania.
Georgescu was formerly a member of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), a right-wing populist and nationalist party advocating for the unification of ethnic Romanians in one nation that had an unexpectedly strong showing in the 2020 Romanian legislative election. He was expelled from the party in 2022 following pro-Russian and anti-NATO statements, as well as praising leaders of the Iron Guard, a Nazi-aligned fascist movement active in Romania in World War Two, which the AUR deemed as too extremist. Consequently, Georgescu began campaigning as an independent candidate for the presidency primarily via TikTok and away from mainstream media under the slogan “Restore the dignity of the Romanian nation”. George Simion, leader of the AUR, came fourth in the presidential race with 13.86% of the popular vote and has since endorsed his followers to vote for Georgescu in the run-off.
The election has been dominated by the economy and the rising cost of living, with Romania containing the largest share of people at risk of poverty in the EU. Bucharest has been a key supporter of Ukraine since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, providing more than €1 billion worth of military equipment to the country. This has led to some Romanians resenting handouts to both Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees in Romania, driving support for more pro-Russian candidates such as Georgescu.
The success of Georgescu poses a dilemma for the vast majority of Romanians who did not vote for either of the two most popular candidates. Lasconi’s progressive stances on European unity, social issues, and Ukraine may be less palatable to PSD voters from rural communities, making the outcome of December 8th’s election increasingly uncertain.
The International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu
Eric Balonwu
The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, have each been issued an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC) court alongside Hamas commander and military leader Mohammed Deif, who Israel claims they killed in an airstrike in Gaza.
Israel and Hamas have both rejected the allegations that they are criminally responsible for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. Specifically, the ICC found there were reasonable grounds to believe Gallant and Netanyahu were responsible for the “war crime of starvation as a method of warfare” as well as other “inhumane acts”. Meanwhile, Deif was accused of the war crimes of murder, rape, sexual violence, taking hostages and torture, among others. Israel, who rejects the jurisdiction of the ICC in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, argued the decisions were antisemitic while Hamas claimed the ICC’s warrant set an “important historical precedent”.
The ICC is a global court, created by the 2002 Rome Statute in the aftermath of the wars in Yugoslavia and the Rwandan genocide. The court is a ‘court of last resort’ intervening when national courts fail to prosecute leaders who have committed genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes since 2002. The Rome Statute has been ratified by 124 countries – however, the US and Israel, as well as other countries like China have not signed the treaty. The US, however, has cooperated with the court.
Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, a signatory to the Rome Statute, has indicated that Netanyahu may face arrest if he steps on British soil. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden has said that the arrest warrants on Israeli leaders were “outrageous”. On the 27th of November, the French Foreign Ministry said that they believe Netanyahu is immune from the ICC arrest warrant because Israel is not a member of the Court. While France, another signatory to the Rome Statute, initially said they would adhere to the ICC statutes, some have argued that France has changed its position to maintain a working relationship with Israel as they were negotiating a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Methanol-tainted Drinks Took the Lives of Backpackers in Laos
Jessica Patanaariyangkul
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/In the busy streets of Vang Vieng, Laos, cheap alcoholic beverages run rampant, and amongst them: deadly cocktails tainted by methanol. Such cocktails took the lives of two young Australian backpackers, Holly Bowles and Bianca Jones, along with four other tourists from the United Kingdom, the United States, and Denmark, who were staying at Nana hostel, a budget youth hostel.The bodies of the two Australians have since been returned to their families. Earlier this week, eight men were arrested by Laos authorities for their involvement in the production of the poisonous liquor and the bar responsible for its distribution has been shut down. There are, however, more victims. Other tourists have been hospitalised over methanol poisoning, including another British national, Lucy Davison. Since the two Australians died in Thai hospitals, both Thai and Laos authorities are involved in the cases.
But what is methanol? Why is it so dangerous? Methanol alcohol is a colorless and tasteless chemical which is deadly to the human body. Unlike ethanol, which is used to make liquor, methanol is broken down by the body to make formaldehyde and subsequently, formate. Formate is extremely toxic, as our body cannot break it down in large quantities. Our cells die after formate enters them, as it causes the mitochondria, which produces energy for the cells, to become oxygen-depleted. Consequently, our cells get damaged and die. These cells comprise our organs, and as such, methanol poisoning can cause organs, such as the liver, to cease functioning. This leads to serious injuries and death in some cases.
Indeed, these instances serve as a warning to anyone planning to backpack, not only to Southeast Asia, but anywhere. Liquor is safest when canned or bottled and drinks should be obtained from a legitimate distributor.