In response to ongoing pressure from environmental groups, the Biden-Harris administration has enacted a ban on future oil and gas drilling in over 625 million acres of US waters. These areas cover the Atlantic coast, the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the Pacific Ocean, and Alaska’s Bering Sea. The decision follows Biden’s pledge to conserve 30% of US lands and waters by 2030.

In a statement on 6th January, Biden argued that the environmental and economic risks associated with offshore drilling outweigh any benefits, explaining how “drilling off these coasts could cause irreversible damage… and is unnecessary to meet our nation’s energy needs.” Biden’s ban aims to preserve coastal ecosystems and economic livelihoods; “as the climate crisis continues to threaten communities across the country and we are transitioning to a clean energy economy, now is the time to protect these coasts for our children and grandchildren.” Environmental campaign groups such as Oceana have hailed the ban as an “epic victory.” 

However, a meagre 15% of total US oil production comes from federal offshore land, and this percentage has been falling sharply while onshore drilling booms, particularly in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico. Critics of the ban question its impacts on future oil and gas projects, given this trend towards onshore drilling. Additionally, this ban doesn’t cover “large swaths of the Gulf of Mexico, where most US offshore drilling occurs.”

The incoming Trump administration is sharply critical of Biden’s policy. Trump’s press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, posted on X: “this is a disgraceful decision designed to exact political revenge on the American people.” The president-elect has vowed to overturn the ban, saying he has “the right to unban it immediately.” Trump has previously promised to “unleash” domestic fossil fuel production and exert the US’s “energy dominance” under the tagline “drill, baby, drill.” Trump also intends to open the Arctic wilderness to drilling, re-exit the Paris Agreement, relax regulation on fossil-fuelled vehicles, and offer new federal permits for natural gas export terminals. 

The Republican Party is certainly behind Trump. House Natural Resources Chair, Bruce Westerman, commented how they intend “to restore and unleash these revenues, … ensuring America — not OPEC, Russia or China — leads the world.” The oil industry has also condemned Biden’s ban with the chair of the IPAA Offshore Committee describing the move as “significant and catastrophic” for future oil and gas projects. 

Trump’s vow to overturn the ban is not as easy as it seems: the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in 2019 that protections under the 1953 Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act cannot be overturned by future presidents. A reversal would require an act of Congress or a ruling by the Supreme Court, and both have Republican majorities, so an overturning is still possible. 

Two of Trump’s advisors – the incoming Interior Secretary, Doug Burgum, and Energy Secretary, Chris Wright (a fracking CEO) – may suggest a combination of renewable and fossil fuel energy policies. Both are fossil fuel advocates but have also worked with clean energy: Wright sits on the board of a nuclear energy company, and as governor for North Dakota, Burgum set goals for the state to go carbon-neutral by 2030. Another close advisor, Elon Musk stood down from two advisory councils when Trump withdrew from the Paris agreement in 2017. 

The new administration will need to upscale energy supply to the nation from multiple sources in order to meet its economic targets. Electricity demand will increase over the coming years, particularly from developing AI processing and data storage facilities. Energy manufacturing facilities, both renewable and fossil-fuelled, will also need to increase their capabilities to meet demand. 

But policymakers should not overlook the social and environmental costs of fossil fuel energy upscaling. Onshore and offshore projects have been shown to create increased pressures on public health, air pollution, groundwater contamination, and environmental devastation from oil spills. According to the Center for American Progress, “The United States—and the world—cannot drill its way out of oil price volatility or into real energy independence… but it will lock the United States into fossil fuel dependence for decades to come.”

With a Republican-held Congress and Supreme Court, it is unlikely that Biden’s ban will stay for long. For environmentalists this is disheartening news. Across the political divide, a new balance may need to be found between economic growth and sustainable development.