On October 29, Dutch voters returned to the polls a lot sooner than they may have hoped. On June 3, after only 11 months in government, the former cabinet led by Dick Schoof collapsed after the largest constituent party, Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), withdrew over a heated dispute on asylum policy. This was merely the climax of the in-fighting that had plagued the cabinet for the months prior, from budget disagreements to allegations of racism.
Nonetheless, this paved the way for the snap elections just 148 days later, where a nail-biting election night issued a result that polls from just days before did not predict.
In a shock result, Rob Jetten’s progressive-centrist party, Democrats 66 (D66), scored a razor-thin victory of just 29,668 votes over the 2023 election winners, the PVV. Whilst close, this was a drastic loss for the PVV, down from the 37 seats they won in 2023. In fact, all parties from the former governing coalition had major losses on election night; one of the constituent parties, the centre-right “New Social Contract” (NSC), was wiped entirely from the House of Representatives.
Jetten, aged 38, is now on course to be both the youngest and first openly gay Prime Minister of the Netherlands, and will be engaging in coalition talks for the coming months to form the next government.
How did the elections work?
Elections take place (usually) every 4 years, where the Dutch electorate votes for a specific candidate (rather than a party) that they would like to see in the “Tweede Kamer” (the House of Representatives). Seats are allocated in direct proportion to the number of votes.
This creates a system where, since 1918, all governments have been multiparty coalitions. Before being sworn into government, parties forming the governing coalition must agree on a joint manifesto. The necessity of collaboration with other parties often moderates extreme political agendas and favours more centrist policies.
This occurred in the 2023 Dutch election, where the PVV, which campaigned on banning the Quran, mosques, and holding a “Nexit” referendum on Dutch removal from the EU, had to form a coalition with three other parties – the liberal conservatives (VVD), the farmers’ alliance (BBB), and the NSC. As a consequence, these more extreme campaign pledges were not reflected in the government’s agenda.
Additionally, Geert Wilders’ lack of experience and controversial personality meant that the parties would not agree to him becoming Prime Minister, instead electing politically neutral former civil servant, Dick Schoof, to lead the government. Nonetheless, this marked the most right-wing government in the Netherlands’ democratic history.
The campaign period saw voters prioritise housing as their most important issue, followed by immigration and asylum policy. The Dutch housing crisis is among the worst in Europe, with the country short of some 400,000 needed homes, and rents rising by 5.4% year-on-year.
Who are the winners and losers?
Undoubtedly, D66 was the biggest winner of election night. It achieved its best electoral result since it was founded, with 26 seats, up from the 9 seats it won in 2023. A win of this size was unprecedented, with polls posted to D66’s Instagram the night before the election predicting that the party would come third, after the PVV and the left-wing “Green-Left-Labour Alliance” (GL-PvdA).
So, what caused this success?
Rob Jetten, a self-confessed “politics nerd”, campaigned under the mantra of “Het kan wél” (“We can do it!”), with his party’s manifesto promising to build 10 new cities to tackle the housing crisis. His positive campaign messaging, impressive debate performance, and social media strategy all contributed to the party’s rapid rise in the polls, winning the major cities of Utrecht, Leiden, The Hague, and Rotterdam.
Jetten’s debate strength was put on full display after Wilders cancelled his attendance on the first televised “prime ministerial” political debate. This came after Wilders was allegedly on a “hit list” of a Belgian jihadist terrorist cell, causing him to suspend all campaign activities.
With Wilders out of the debate, Rob Jetten’s well-crafted arguments, which previously lent him the nickname “Robot Jetten”, took centre stage and propelled his little-known campaign promises to more voters.
Some campaign slip-ups from other parties by comparison further elevated the D66. On the surface, it appeared that the centrist CDA had an overwhelming success on election night, gaining 13 seats. However, this was a slight underperformance from what the party was expecting, with polls suggesting the party would win 25 seats in early October.
Just two weeks before election night, party leader Henri Bontenbal, who polls indicated was the most popular of all party leaders and favourite for Prime Minister, suggested that religious schools should have the power to bar students on the grounds of their sexuality and gender identity. Though he walked these statements back, more moderate CDA voters shifted to D66 for a progressive alternative, ultimately landing them in fifth place.
Other parties predicted to do well also fell short, including the GL-PvdA. The party lost 5 seats, from 25 down to 20 seats this election, resulting in former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans relinquishing his title as party leader. Nonetheless, the party came in fourth, and is a likely coalition member under the new leadership of Jesse Klaver.
What will the next government look like?
At the time of writing, coalition talks are currently in progress, with Rob Jetten stating that he aims to build a broad-base centrist coalition. It is typical for coalition talks to take months, so it is likely that we won’t know what the next Dutch government will look like until well into 2026. Nonetheless, given that the coalition will need 76 seats or more to have a majority in the 150-seat house, there are some clear options for who could participate in the next government, and some that clearly will not.
Despite coming in a close second place, it is almost guaranteed that the PVV will not be in the next government. Most major parties have ruled out working with Wilders due to his former government’s poor performance, including D66.
From Jetten’s own comments, a broad-based centrist coalition would likely consist of 4 parties: D66, the GL-PvdA from the left; the CDA from the centre, and the VVD from the liberal right. This would form a strong coalition with 86 seats.
However, Dilan Yeşilgöz, leader of the third-place VVD, has publicly ruled out working with any left-wing parties in the future government. Instead, she has favoured a right-wing alliance that is harsh on immigration, formed of D66, the VVD, the CDA, and the newer far-right party, JA21. This, however, falls short of a majority, only achieving 75 seats in government.
Jetten has not ruled out either possibility, and may have to compromise his manifesto promises to ensure a stable government.
Will the Dutch far-right lose its momentum?
The Dutch far-right has had a grip on politics for the majority of the 21st Century. The assassinations of prominent anti-immigration and anti-Islam figures Pim Fortuyn and Theo van Gogh in the early 2000s destigmatised debates on multiculturalism and immigration policy in government.
Since then, the Netherlands has transformed from being a country lauded for its progressive stance on multiculturalism to having one of the most restrictive immigration and asylum policies in the EU.
Geert Wilders has been a prominent politician throughout this. After leaving the VVD, he has been in numerous controversies over the years, including multiple criminal trials and a travel ban to the UK after he was accused of inciting hatred and violence towards Dutch-Moroccans. The success of his party, however, is closely linked to reactionary attitudes to such controversies. He himself stated that the PVV’s poor electoral result in the 2021 general election was due to a lack of important events surrounding Islam and immigration that the party could capitalise from.
So have attitudes towards these issues changed in this election cycle?
Not quite. This election saw a decrease in the PVV’s seat share, but the overall far-right seat share in the House of Representatives has increased from 41 to 42. Instead, with the wealth of parties in this election, the far-right vote has been split over three major parties: the PVV, the “Fortuynist” JA21, and the extreme-right, conspiracy theorist “Forum for Democracy” (FvD).
In September, the D66 headquarters were the subject of far-right violence after anti-asylum protests erupted in The Hague, with demonstrators waving the old Dutch flag, which has associations with the National Socialist Movement (NSB), the proxy that led the Nazi-occupied Netherlands in WWII. Wilders has condemned the violence as the work of “idiots”.
The far-right is therefore still an enduring and sizable part of the Dutch political ecosystem, and doesn’t quite indicate that far-right politics is leaving mainstream politics anytime soon. In one scenario, JA21 could still plausibly enter government, which campaigned on policies not too dissimilar from those of the PVV.
Until then, many breathe a sigh of relief that the poor governance under Schoof is over, and progressive politics seems to be back on the agenda. Whilst Jetten’s positive campaigning and ambitious progressivism sets an example from the pro-European centre and left, the far-right wave across Europe appears to not yet have passed.