Just 14 months after their last election, the people of Portugal are heading back to the polls. After losing a confidence vote in parliament by 142–88 votes, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro and his fragile minority centre-right government were ousted in mid-March. ​President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa quickly dissolved parliament, scheduling a snap general election for 18 May, the third national vote in as many years​. Montenegro’s cabinet has remained in place in the interim, while weary voters prepare for another campaign. 

What happened?

Montenegro, the leader of the centre-right PSD (Social Democratic Party), called a vote of no confidence to reaffirm faith in his government after allegations of corruption. 

Prior to his return to politics in 2022, he had founded Spinumviva, a consultancy firm. Although he transferred ownership to his wife and children, the opposition has alleged that Spinumviva continued to benefit from contracts with companies holding government concessions. This particularly concerned major government gambling concessions. 

Montenegro staunchly denied any wrongdoing. However, given that the previous Prime Minister of Portugal, Antonio Costa, was also forced to resign due to a corruption scandal, this was a particularly contentious and sensitive issue.

Facing these accusations, Montenegro sought to reaffirm his government’s legitimacy by initiating a confidence vote. However, the motion was defeated by the opposition parties who worked together to topple him. Their collaboration has led to the collapse of his minority government and paved the way for the third general election in Portugal in just three years. It’s starting to feel like fado politics: melancholic, repetitive, and inevitable.

A pattern of failure

To truly understand this collapse’s significance, one must look back at recent political history in Portugal. 

Over the past few years, the country has witnessed a series of government falls, early elections, and political recalibrations that have left many feeling like they’re stuck in a never-ending carousel of instability. Since the nation’s peaceful transition to democracy in 1974, Portugal has only had 14 Prime Ministers, meaning these frequent shifts in power have been almost unprecedented.

In November 2023, Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa (of the Socialist Party) resigned amid a corruption investigation involving his government. The inquiry focused on alleged irregularities in the handling of lithium mining concessions and hydrogen projects. Costa’s chief of staff was arrested, and Infrastructure Minister João Galamba was named a formal suspect. 

Despite asserting his innocence, Costa stepped down, stating that the dignity of the prime minister’s office was incompatible with any suspicion about his integrity. His resignation led to snap legislative elections in March 2024.

Costa’s sudden exit is not in isolation: ex-PM José Sócrates insists his innocence against corruption charges in a case that has dragged out for over ten years. Meanwhile, the most recent graft scandal in Madeira has forced two leading PSD officials to quit. Together, these scandals have dominated headlines and soured many voters against the political class as a whole.

This all comes amidst intense scrutiny from the right-wing populist Chega party. The growing distrust in mainstream parties has created an environment where alternative political movements, such as the right-wing, can gain increased support in upcoming elections, building on past electoral successes. This has been a recurring theme in European elections of late, as evidenced with the successes of Germany’s AfD, Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia and England’s Reform Party.

The key contenders

The election pits Montenegro against Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos as their parties’ candidates for prime minister. Montenegro, 51, projects a steady, pro-business image and has remained largely unscathed personally by the attacks his opponents have leveraged against him. 

By contrast, Santos, 48, is often seen as more of a firebrand, which could hurt his appeal to centrists. Santos is a veteran Socialist insider; an economist who became Infrastructure Minister (2019–2022) under Costa​ , but critics note he occupies the left wing of his party. Santos even had to resign in late 2022 amid a public outcry over a large severance payment at state airline TAP, a controversy that opponents still cite. Polls suggest that many moderate voters remain wary of Santos’s combative style. 

No single party is expected to win outright, making smaller parties the likely kingmakers. In the last election, the far-right Chega surged into third place. This was largely unprecedented at the time, with Chega expanding their parliamentary representation fourfold, achieving just over 18% of the vote. Chega still polls around 18%, showing that they’re here to stay.​ Chega’s leader, André Ventura, openly brags that only his votes can put a government over the top.

Chega has capitalised on voter exhaustion and mistrust in the government by positioning itself as the champion of the common person: a party willing to shake up the status quo and challenge the entrenched political elites. Their rhetoric, often very confrontational and direct, has resonated particularly well with younger voters; they feel that the traditional parties are more interested in self-preservation than in solving the nation’s real problems.

Other minor parties—from the liberals of the Liberal Initiative to the left-wing blocs (Communists, Greens, Left Bloc)—could also tip the balance in a tightly divided parliament. In practice, almost any government will need post-election deals to pass legislation.

What next?

The Democratic Alliance holds 33% of decided voter intentions despite Montenegro’s failure to secure a parliamentary vote of confidence. This has come as a shock to many political commentators who expected the support for Montenegro to fall after losing the confidence vote. However, this still stands very short of the required 50% needed to achieve a majority.

The centre-left Socialist Party, under the leadership of Santos, stands at 26%. Chega, led by Ventura, has been gaining traction with 18% of voter intentions. While the centre-right Liberal Initiative is currently polling at around 7%.

With nearly 20% of voters still undecided, the outcome of the upcoming election in Portugal remains wide open. Swing voters are likely to determine which of the two major blocs can edge ahead. Many undecided voters are disillusioned by repeated elections and corruption scandals, and may vote reluctantly or stay home entirely. 

Inter-party dynamics will be crucial in this election. If Montenegro secures only a minority, he must enlist at least one other party to reach the 116-seat threshold for a legislative mandate. Although Chega previously backed him, their role in triggering the no‑confidence vote makes their support highly improbable. Likewise, ideological divisions between Montenegro and Santos render any cooperation unworkable. Consequently, Montenegro is more likely to court the Liberal Initiative, which supported him in the no-confidence motion. Despite this, their combined seats may still fall short of the 116 needed to form a majority.

But if one party can present a credible plan for stability and integrity, it could tip the scales in what’s shaping up to be one of the tightest races in Portugal’s recent history.