Biden’s focus on the democratic issues at stake had been widely critiqued by supporters and opponents alike. Democracy itself appeared not to be even a top five issue for American voters, who instead rallied behind fears of inflation (45% of Republicans, 28% of Democrats), abortion (12% of Republicans, 43% of Democrats), crime, immigration and gun control.
These issues became the focal point for much of the Republican message, raising fears that Biden had targeted the wrong issues. Nonetheless, candidates supported by Trump appear to have floundered, the expected ‘red-wave’ has failed to materialise, and issues such as abortion seem to be suffering huge losses. Meanwhile, those who refuse to comment on the election results, such as DeSantis, have seen huge surges in support.
Until now, the image and rhetoric of Trump and the Republican Party have been near inseparable. Election denial was a virtual requirement for those seeking nomination, and crucially, a Trump endorsement. Indeed, those like Liz Cheney who refused to support him failed to win sufficient internal party support to even appear on the ballot.
The threat of election denial seemed acute in the midterms, with an estimated 51% of GOP nominees (291 candidates) denying the results of the 2020 presidential election. Moreover, many of these candidates have hinted that they will deny the results of this election, with Kari Lake, the Republican gubernatorial candidate for Arizona, arrogantly stating that “I’m going to win the election, and I will accept that result.”
However, the integral nature of Trump, and Trumpian politics within the Republican party, appears to be changing. DeSantis’ influence within the party continues to grow, and he is increasingly appearing to be a younger, stronger, and less divisive candidate. His intention to run for election in 2024 appear clearer than ever, with the Tampa crowd at his victory rally chanting ‘Two More Years’.
DeSantis has refused to comment on the 2020 election, which could be a sign of a new age and narrative for the Republican party, removing their dependence on the rhetoric of election denial. Indeed, although there has been a sizable victory for election deniers, with around 150 projected to have won, some of the most outspoken election deniers, such as the Trump-backed Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, sustained defeat in races that had once seemed to be guaranteed Republican victories.
Several other Trump-backed candidates suffered significant defeats in crucial areas, Majenski in Ohio, Leavitt and Bolduc in New Hampshire, and notably, the celebrity doctor, Dr. Mehet Oz in Pennsylvania, in what was the country’s most expensive senate race. Moreover, early results show counties with Trump-backed candidates increased their Republican vote by 1.3% in 2020, compared to an average of 6.9% elsewhere, suggesting his influence over Republican voters is waning.
Other key Republican and Trumpian issues such as abortion have not fallen in their favour, with California, Michigan and Vermont enshrining abortion rights within their state constitutions, and Kentucky failing to pass an amendment that would further restrict access to abortion. Voters instead seem to be coming down in favour of the law and order and anti-woke campaigns backed by DeSantis, which in some ways appear even more threatening.
It remains to be seen whether those Republican candidates posed to lose the vote, such as Lake, will accept the election results, or continue to challenge the validity of these elections, but the decline of Trump’s influence will certainly influence these decisions.
Moreover, the midterms appear to be characteristic of a generational shift, where Trump and Biden seem to be losing momentum, to younger candidates. DeSantis is probably going to replace Trump as the figurehead of the GOP, yet his rhetoric and proposed policies are potentially even more threatening to the rights of American citizens and democracy. American Democracy still remains polarised and divided, fraught by these claims over the legitimacy of elections, but we may be moving into a new political era, which is potentially more threatening than anything we’ve seen so far.