On a sunny June morning in 1971, a fresh-faced teenager walked out of the pavilion at Edgbaston and made his Test cricket debut against England. More than fifty years later, the same man – now the ex-Prime Minister of Pakistan – walked out of the Supreme Court in Lahore after two days under what the court deemed as an “invalid and unlawful” arrest. From leading the Pakistani national team to victory in the 1992 Cricket World Cup to leading one of Pakistan’s main political parties, the story of Keble alumnus Imran Khan’s rise and fall is a complicated one and it is a story that is far from over.
Pakistan has been experiencing an unprecedented political crisis, acutely triggered when a crowd of paramilitary officers in riot gear entered a courthouse, arrested Khan and drove him away in an armoured vehicle. The former Prime Minister – forcibly ousted from power via a vote of the no-confidence motion last year – had appeared in court to face charges of corruption. He unequivocally denied these charges, among several others for blasphemy and sedition, and claimed that they were politically motivated conspiracies against him.
Hours after these events, protests began to break out in support of Khan. He had remained a widely popular figure and the favourite to win the next general election this year with the party he founded in 1996: the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI – ‘Pakistan Movement for Justice). In an interview with Times Radio in March, Khan stated that it was this very popularity that was driving his opponents to take increasingly extreme measures against him and that his life was “more under threat” than ever. So far he has evaded them, even surviving an apparent attempted assassination in November. The same cannot be said for the people who have lost their lives in the wake of brutal clashes between the rioting villains and the police. According to officials, at least 8 people have died nationwide, though the PTI allege the exact number is closer to 50.
In many ways, the escalating situation represents the breaking point for Pakistan’s political proceedings. The critical juncture comes after decades of unrest and instability, caused at least in part by the outsized involvement of its military in the political scene. The Pakistani army, currently led by Chief General Asim Munir, has always wielded a huge amount of power. Historically, the complicated civil-military relations have led to three violent military coups and dictatorships. In its relatively short life as an independent nation, Pakistan has already spent several decades under military rule. The Pakistani politicians who are paradigms of success all have one thing in common: the endorsement of the all-powerful army. The cricketer-turned-populist-politician Khan used to be no different. Military officials wholeheartedly backed his ascent in 2018. The PTI took great pains to emphasise the harmony between their government and the army, even revealing that “Civilian and Military leadership on the same page and vision [Sic]” and lambasting its other political parties for slandering military leadership.
However, over time, Khan lost favour with the higher military powers, like the prime ministers before him. Shockingly, in Pakistan’s history, no prime minister has ever completed a full five-year term. After the army turned its back on him and supported his ouster in 2022, Khan assumed the role of righteous firebrand and rebel. He began rallying supporters to aid him in his mission to single-handedly dismantle and destroy pervasive military influence in Pakistani politics. Today, he is embroiled in a stand-off that is as violent as it is bizarre, with the PTI on one side and the military-backed government of incumbent Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on the other. Both factions have intensely loyal supporters who are willing to go to violent extremes for what they believe in, leaving Pakistan teetering on a knife edge.
A closer look needs to be taken at the demographic of Khan’s supporter base, to truly understand why he poses such a threat to the decades-old status quo in Pakistani politics. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed Pakistan’s already febrile economy into an economic crisis in 2022. This led to the parliamentary vote of confidence against Khan. However, since his removal, inflation has hit record highs. Prices of imported food and fuel, which the country is dependent on, have skyrocketed. The currency is depreciating rapidly and foreign reserves are dangerously low. In short, Pakistan is staring down the barrel at a fully-fledged recession and Khan has astutely tapped into this to boost his own approval ratings.
Amidst mounting public outrage and unhappiness at the ruling coalition government, Khan’s address to his supporters to celebrate iftar (breaking of the fast during Ramadan) ended with the rousing statement that “no Pakistani should have to go to bed hungry.” The Financial Times reported that during Ramadan Khan was seen outside his residence in Lahore, sitting on a mat, sharing iftar and complaining about food prices. This populist image has proved to be powerful – forecasts by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predict a landslide victory for the PTI when Pakistan heads to polls later this year. The current government’s poor handling of the economic crisis plays directly into Khan’s waiting hands.
There is more to his popularity than these contemporary grievances, though. Khan has managed to tap into a coveted demographic that is bigger and more influential than ever before. The young, urban, middle class who are increasingly discontent with living in a partial democracy have fallen in love with his new anti-establishment rebel persona. Khan’s rhetoric hinges on being a people’s man. He stands for ending corruption, investing in education and being a patriotic proponent for a Pakistan of freedom and equal opportunities. He spoke out against the USA’s “war on terror” narrative – a position that deeply resounded with the wider populace.
His shiny celebrity career as an international cricketer no doubt has also boosted the public’s love for him. Bringing home the World Cup – Pakistan’s only one to date – was a huge achievement in a country utterly obsessed with the sport. The military powers in Pakistan, who have run the political proceedings behind-the-scenes without much meaningful opposition, have finally come face to face with a man capable of taking them down with the aid of the masses.
To his supporters, Imran Khan is a heroic liberator dedicated to saving his country from the forces that threaten to topple it. To his critics, he is a self-serving firebrand who is more hell-bent on creating chaos than fostering peace and democracy. In his term as Prime Minister, Khan did exacerbate pre-existing weaknesses in Pakistan’s economy, with his subsidy schemes and other poorly-considered but populist financial decisions. Considering a large portion of the country’s economic pressures began in his term, his vocal criticism of the current government seems hypocritical and strategic.
Additionally, foreign relations with the Western world became increasingly strained, as Khan began to adopt an anti-USA rhetoric. He went as far as to suggest that his ouster was a conspiracy hatched in Washington. Security agencies have not found any evidence to verify this accusation, though. To the cynical eye, Khan seems to be painting himself as the victim and constructing a martyr persona. Yet, in reality, his term as PM left a lot to be desired. Arguably, Khan had no interest in disturbing the hornet’s nest of military dominance in politics until it proved to be antagonistic to his own personal ambitions. When scrutinised from this perspective, Khan appears more the cunning rabble-rouser than the innocent patriot.
It remains to be seen how exactly the dangerously volatile situation in Pakistan will play out. Khan is currently at home on bail, alleging that the military is planning to rearrest him at any given moment. The PTI have an unprecedented social media presence in Pakistan. Khan’s face is plastered over their official Twitter and Youtube, encouraging his supporters to hold peaceful protests all over the country. His supporters are not the only ones. Scores of government loyalists staged their own sit-in protest outside the Supreme Court for their role in facilitating Khan’s release. The world is watching with bated breath. If the elections happen, and if Khan is allowed to participate, he will likely win. The ‘if’ is rather a big one. It remains to be seen who will come out on top in Pakistani politics.