With control of the US Congress having been declared, the results of the Midterm Elections are clear: the Republican “Red Wave” predicted by most of the political establishment failed to materialise, perhaps being better characterised as a “Red Ripple”. Joe Biden and the Democrats have fended off the sweeping defeats that befell their predecessors Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010.
What Happened?
Midterm elections, when all members of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate seats (on a rotating basis) are up for election halfway through a President’s term, tend to be drubbings for the President’s party. As their political honeymoon fades, voters voice their dissatisfaction towards the incumbent.
Many indicators leading up to Election Day pointed towards a poor performance for Democrats: Biden’s approval rating remaining in the low 40s, record-high inflation, the economy contracting in the first two quarters of 2022, and polling suggesting that a majority of Americans thought the country was going in the wrong direction.
Yet despite these difficult headwinds, Democrats have performed surprisingly well. They have retained their majority in the Senate, gaining a seat in Pennsylvania with possible scope to expand it, come the runoff election in Georgia next month. Despite losing control of the House of Representatives, Democrats will only face single-digit losses (projected at the time of writing). Democrats have also made gains in state governments, gaining complete control of four states from Republicans.
While losing control of the House of Representatives may seem like a defeat, it is important to view these results against the historic backdrop. In the past century, only three Presidents’ first midterms have gone better: Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934 amid the Great Depression and the rolling out of the New Deal, John F. Kennedy in 1962 during the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, and George W. Bush in 2002 in the wake of 9/11. That Biden has performed on a comparable level indicates similarly groundbreaking events working in his favour, and the results seem to point to two key factors: Abortion and Trump.
Why Did Republicans Undershoot Expectations?
Perhaps the biggest event that puts the 2022 midterms in the same league as 1934, 1962, and 2002 was the currently conservative-dominated Supreme Court overturning of the landmark case Roe v. Wade, which protected the right to an abortion nationally, in June this year. By giving the responsibility of regulating reproductive rights to the states instead of the Federal government, soon after the decision 11 states, all controlled by Republican state governments, banned abortion. Conversely, Democratic-led states have all maintained their protections.
With 61% of Americans supporting legal abortion in all or most cases, the vehemently pro-life stance of Republicans, with some even advocating for a national abortion ban, has turned many moderate voters towards the Democrats, who firmly support the right to abortion. The ruling has also motivated many women and young people to vote for the Democrats. Youth (18-29) turnout reached its second highest level ever for a midterm, and young voters backed the Democrats by a margin of 62% to 35%, with women breaking for the Democrats in key states. With abortion coming in a close 2nd for top issues of voters just behind the economy, it was a clear factor behind the Democrats’ performance.
Also of significance was the damaging effect Donald Trump and his endorsements had on Republicans. Many Republican candidates won their primaries due to prized endorsements from Trump, yet in the process peddled his false claims that the 2020 Presidential Election was “stolen”, and in some cases for governor not promising to certify future presidential election results should Trump lose in 2024. In doing this, many of these more extremist candidates put off moderate voters, with the results showing this: key Senate races in Pennsylvania and Nevada and key governorships in Arizona and Wisconsin were lost by Trump-endorsed, election-denying Republicans. Even prior to the election, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell decried the poor quality of many Republican candidates.
There’s a case to be made here that this was a rejection of the Republican party, still beholden to Trump, as too extreme and chaotic. Yet a series of legislative wins for the Democrats leading up to the election, ranging from climate to industrial policy, as well as the cancellation of student debt and pardoning of all convicted of marijuana possession, all buoyed the Democrats’ ratings. This unique mixture of factors favoured the Democrats and helped them buck the historic trend.
What Does This Mean Going Forward?
The surprising results will no doubt instil optimism amongst Democrats, and will also redeem Biden’s standing within the party, with him considering running again in 2024. However, with the House in Republican control (albeit by the smallest of margins), Congress has become divided, which will greatly stymie Biden’s legislative agenda. The Republican controlled House may seek to end the investigation into Trump’s role in the January 6th 2021 Capitol Hill attack, possibly reduce military aid to Ukraine, and attempt to extract concessions from Biden over government funding and debt. However, several of Biden’s major legislative wins have been bipartisan, like his key bills on infrastructure investment and microchip industrial policy, so it would be premature to write off the rest of his term.
Interestingly, the Republicans seem to be in deeper trouble going forward. Soon after their mediocre results became clear, different Republican factions began blaming each other, with considerable ire directed at Trump and his endorsed extremist candidates. In both the Senate and House, senior Republicans also faced challenges from their own party over congressional leadership. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnel faced for the first time in his 15 years in office a challenge to his leadership, and Republican House leader Kevin McCarthy received a challenge from the far-right House Freedom Caucus, with 31 House Republicans voting to replace McCarthy. The latter result could be crucial, as those 31 representatives more than threaten the slim majority the Republicans will command in the House.
This open revolt amongst Congressional Republicans is matched by Donald Trump officially launching his 2024 bid for the Presidency, in the process slandering potential Republican candidate Ron DeSantis, current governor of Florida. DeSantis was one of the Republican’s few big victories in the midterms, being re-elected by the biggest margin in Florida since 1982. Evidently threatened by DeSantis’ rise, Trump nicknamed him “Ron DeSanctimonious” and claimed to know “things about him that won’t be very flattering – I know more about him than anybody – other than, perhaps, his wife”. DeSantis in turn dismissed the remarks as “noise” and said to “tell people to check out the scoreboard”. As Republicans gear up for their 2024 presidential candidate selection process, many fear that open warfare between Trump, DeSantis and anyone else who decides to run could tear the party apart, and only serve to benefit the much more united Democrats.
Going into the midterms, many expected Biden’s hold on Congress, and therefore his legislative agenda and chances of a Democratic victory in 2024, to be wiped out. Yet the historic results have tipped the balance back into the Democrat’s favour. While their minimal losses will make legislating easier than it might have otherwise been, perhaps the Democrats’ biggest political boon to come out of these elections is the carnage Republicans have already begun unleashing upon one another.