Following former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment after his unconstitutional attempt to impose martial law last December, South Koreans head to the polls in a surprise snap election. With the centre-left Democratic Party’s victory all but guaranteed, wider questions must be asked about the state of South Korean politics. Two Presidents have been removed from office by the Constitutional Court since 2017 while the country faces further economic and geopolitical challenges. Should Lee Jae-Myung become South Korea’s new president on 3 June, he will have a challenging term ahead of him.
Lee Jae-Myung’s Personal Challenges
While President Yoon’s court battles are well-documented, the leader of the opposition and Democratic Party leader, Lee Jae-Myung, also faces an array of court challenges that may render him ineligible to become South Korea’s next president.
Following a not guilty verdict in a case where he was accused of breaching election laws, Lee faces four further court battles. Firstly, he is accused of multiple corruption charges relating to urban development projects in Seongnam, where he was accused of granting unfair advantages to private developers which resulted in losses for the city. He is also facing charges of perjury after being accused of instructing a former secretary to provide false testimony during a previous 2018 trial. Although previously acquitted, prosecutors have appealed the decision, with the retrial planned to take place on 24 June, after the 3 June election.
Additionally, Lee is accused of misusing over 100 million won (approximately £60,000) in public funds for personal expenses. His wife is accused of using a government vehicle for private purposes, having already been found guilty of using a government credit card for personal use. Perhaps most seriously, Lee is under investigation for allegedly orchestrating the illegal transfer of just under £7 million to North Korea between 2019 and 2020 through the Ssangbangwool Group. The funds were purportedly intended to facilitate a visit to Pyongyang and support inter-Korean projects. His former deputy governor has been convicted in connection with this case.
These all raise serious concerns for Lee because if any of these cases indict him before inauguration day (4 June), he will be disqualified from running as the country’s leader. If none of the cases are decided before inauguration day, his presidential immunity will protect him from criminal convictions throughout his term. However, this may not be the sum of his problems. Should investigations carry on during his presidency, he may be impeached similarly to former President Park Geun-hye. Park was impeached following a string of corruption convictions. In the country’s seventy-seven years of independence, four former presidents have been jailed for corruption, with another former president ending his own life before the completion of the investigation. It’s a problem that has plagued the nation for decades.
This all besides the assassination attempt last year that nearly took his life. His attempted killer, who has remained unnamed since the attack, stated in court that he wanted to kill the presidential hopeful to prevent him from becoming the nation’s leader. Lee has spent much of the past 18 months in the headlines, famously breaching martial law to enter the National Assembly and help pass a resolution, streaming himself climb over a wall.
South Korea in limbo
Should Lee become President of South Korea, he faces a number of internal and external challenges, chiefly the economy.
The imposition of 25 percent U.S. tariffs under President Trump’s administration has significantly impacted South Korea’s export-driven economy. The automotive sector faces substantial challenges, with Hyundai and Kia’s U.S. vehicle exports projected to decrease by 300,000 units.
The South Korean government has pledged increased policy support, allocating 28.6 trillion won (£15.4 billion) to address liquidity concerns and expand export markets. Additionally, a 33 trillion won (£18 billion) support package has been announced for the semiconductor industry to bolster investment in advanced chip research and manufacturing.
While this may help address the issues on the macro level, South Korea’s economy is under mounting strain from rising household debt and persistently high youth unemployment. Household debt has surged to around 91 percent of GDP, largely due to inflated housing costs and the burdensome jeonse deposit system (which requires a minimum of a 50 percent deposit of the value of a house). Resulting in limited consumer spending and threatened financial stability. At the same time, youth unemployment remains high despite low overall joblessness, with many young people stuck in insecure, temporary, low-pay jobs. High inflation compounds these struggles with food, clothing, and housing costs significantly above the OECD average.
On top of that, Lee, should he win, would have to deal with geopolitical problems. President Yoon distanced Seoul from Beijing, in line with his anti-communist rhetoric. But, given that trade with the United States is set to fall and China remains South Korea’s largest trading partner, this seems untenable. Lee must also address problems with North Korea. The Democratic Party has a history of pushing for dialogue and cooperation, unlike the current government’s tougher, military-focused approach. North Korea’s sustained militarisation over the past several years poses a potential existential threat to South Korea should relations not be managed effectively.
Lee’s vision for South Korea
Lee has outlined an ambitious agenda to tackle the nation’s economic and geopolitical challenges. Central to his economic vision is the transformative and fair growth strategy, which aims to address structural inequalities by investing in green industries, digital transformation, and education reforms. He has proposed a significant investment, over 100 trillion won (£54 billion), in the artificial intelligence sector, alongside a commitment to phase out coal power by 2040 and expand renewable energy sources. Lee also advocates for a four-and-a-half-day workweek to reduce South Korea’s long working hours and plans incentives to combat staggeringly low birth rates and support the elderly through tax breaks, public housing, and expanded nursing services.
Lee is attempting to consolidate support among moderates and minority parties, recognising the need to broaden his appeal following his narrow loss in the 2022 presidential election. He has made symbolic gestures, such as paying respects to former conservative presidents to signal a commitment to national unity, even describing the Democratic Party as the party of “moderate conservatives”. However, this shift has raised questions about his credibility among progressives, especially given his previous support for labour-friendly policies like the “Yellow Envelope Act“, and has caused a rift between him and the trade unions. Lee’s stance on social issues, including gender equality, has also been scrutinised, with some critics pointing to his less favourable views on feminism as a potential liability among progressive voters.
Balancing these dynamics will be crucial for Lee as he seeks to navigate the country’s complex political landscape and avoid a repeat of conservative over performance that contributed to his 2022 defeat, and hopefully lead South Korea into a more stable and prosperous period.