Last Thursday, The Guardian editor and columnist Martin Kettle entitled his column, “Hold your breath and look to Germany: its election could decide the fate of Europe – and the UK,” urging readers to pay attention to the upcoming German elections. Yesterday, that pivotal moment arrived—but what happened, and why does it matter?
The Winners
It wasn’t a surprise. The Conservatives (CDU/CSU) have led the polls since May 2022. After the initial enthusiasm surrounding the so-called ‘traffic light coalition’—comprising the Social Democrats (SPD), the Green Party, and the Liberals (FDP)—reality set in.
Facing external challenges like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government was further plagued by constant internal conflicts. The federal elections took place seven months earlier than expected due to the collapse of the coalition.
The Conservatives won yesterday’s elections with a significant lead, securing 28.6% of the vote. However, it is not as strong as many supporters might have hoped. Considering the unpopularity of the last government under the Social Democrats, the Conservatives aimed to get at least 30% of the vote.
They especially struggled to appeal to young people. Only 13% of 18- to 24-year-olds voted for the CDU/CSU, compared to 33% of people in their 60s and 43% of those over 70.
One thing is clear: Friedrich Merz, the Conservative leader, will probably become the next chancellor. As the party with the highest percentage of votes, he can form a coalition. In Germany’s parliamentary system, governments are typically formed through coalitions, as it is rare for a single party to secure an absolute majority.
Finding this majority is where the challenge begins: the party with the second-most support, the Alternative for Germany Party (AfD), has the most in common with the Conservatives, but it is also the party Merz has vowed not to form a coalition with.
The AfD is widely considered a far-right populist party. Members have claimed that Hitler was a communist, and even dismissed the Nazi regime as “mere bird droppings in over 1,000 years of successful German history.” The party expresses sympathy for autocrats like Viktor Orbán and Vladimir Putin while also receiving support from increasingly controversial figures such as Elon Musk, who allegedly personally congratulated co-leader of the AfD Alice Weidel on the election results.
They secured 20,8% of the vote—one-fifth of the electorate and exactly double the 10.4% they achieved in 2021. However, they will remain in opposition and limited in political influence if Friedrich Merz keeps his promise.
The events of the past weeks in Germany have raised doubts about his reliability. For the first time, the AfD backed him in a controversial motion on border controls, breaking the so-called “Brandmauer” (“firewall”) that prevents the cooperation of mainstream and far-right parties in post-war Germany. His actions triggered massive protests across Germany.
Goodbye, Traffic Light Coalition
What about the other parties? The incumbent leaders, the SPD, suffered a major defeat, plummeting to 16,4%. Olaf Scholz insisted throughout his campaign that he would remain chancellor, but German voters indicated otherwise. This is the worst election result in the over 160-year history of the party. Scholz stated that he would take responsibility and would not play a leading role in the coalition negotiations.
The Green Party came in fourth with 11.6%—3.6% less than in 2021—but, compared to the other government parties, it was a fair result. They mobilised their core voters well.
The standings of the top four parties largely matched polling trends, which had remained static in recent weeks. The real suspense, however, lay in the fate of the three smaller parties, each of which had a chance to surpass the 5% threshold and secure parliamentary representation.
The Liberals (FDP), failed to surpass the 5% threshold, falling out of parliament for the second time since 2013. Furthermore, this marks the second time they have exited parliament after being part of a governing coalition.
A Revival and a Downfall
On the other hand, the Left Party experienced a moment of revival. After years of internal strife, one of its leading figures left the party in 2023 to found her own party, named after her: the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance. Initially, it seemed that the remaining Left Party was on the verge of irrelevance, while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance found success in the European Parliament elections and state elections in eastern Germany, where it even joined governing coalitions.
Meanwhile, in the last few weeks before the election, polls showed increasing support for the Left due to its surging popularity among young adults. They achieved 8.8%—an unimaginable result a year ago.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance secured 4.97% of the vote, just short of the 5% necessary. The BSW is now considering a legal review of the election results, arguing that, due to short deadlines before the early election, many of the 230,000 registered German voters abroad could not cast their ballots. It remains unclear whether this strategy will be successful.
Germany’s Future Under Friedrich Merz
What do the results mean for Germany’s next government? And what policies can be expected from future Chancellor Friedrich Merz?
The most likely coalition is between the Conservatives and the Social Democrats—which is the most favoured scenario among Germans and is known as the “Grand Coalition.” It is also a scenario Germans are quite familiar with. Angela Merkel led a “Grand Coalition” for 12 out of her 16 years as chancellor.
However, compared to Angela Merkel, Merz is likely to implement far more conservative policies. Here, “more conservative” primarily means stricter migration policies. According to Merz, he intends to close Germany’s borders on his first day as chancellor, refusing all attempts at illegal entry. However, the question remains: how will he gather enough support to implement an effective entry ban, considering Germany’s 2,000-mile Schengen Area border?
Addressing the recession, Merz plans to lower corporate taxes, largely benefitting high-income individuals. Unlike the AfD, he does not deny climate change, but he wants to protect the climate with less “force” while still supporting renewable energies, which now account for almost 60% of Germany’s energy system.
For Germany, beyond the challenge of overcoming the recession, another crucial question is whether the rise of the AfD has reached its peak.
By steering the CDU further to the right, Merz aimed to win back voters who had turned to the AfD. However, today’s AfD—despite its numerous scandals—is perceived by many as a “normal” centre-right party, marking a shift in what is acceptable in politics. This can be explained by the Overton window, a concept describing the range of policies and ideas considered acceptable in public discourse. As radical positions gain traction, the window shifts, making previously extreme views appear more mainstream.
What further weakens the Conservatives’ position for many voters is that many potential AfD supporters hold the Conservatives, especially Merkel, responsible for migration policies over the last 10 years. In the East, the AfD has now established a stable base of support.
Germany in Europe and the World
Whilst migration, the economy, and dealing with the AfD are the most important matters for German citizens, Germany’s role in European and international politics demands stable positions. So, returning to Martin Kettle’s point, what do the election results mean for European and international politics more broadly?
Merz has always been clear about his support for Ukraine. However, in recent months, as the economy and migration have dominated the political agenda, it remains uncertain how exactly he will navigate the possibility of Europe supporting Ukraine without aid from the US. Whilst he has stated that Germany must adopt a stronger position within Europe, he has avoided making clear commitments on whether he will allocate more funding to defence beyond NATO’s 2% target.
Regarding support for Ukraine, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer proposed sending British troops to protect a potential peace settlement between Ukraine and Russia. However, he found little support among his fellow European leaders, including Merz, so Starmer is unlikely to find an ally in him.
Following Trump’s recent statements regarding Ukraine, in which he accused Zelenskyy of being a dictator, Merz said in an interview: “We must prepare for the possibility that Donald Trump will no longer uphold NATO’s mutual defence commitment unconditionally.” He has also called for greater independence from the US, signalling a potential shift in Germany’s foreign policy approach. Simultaneously, Merz has criticised Elon Musk for his support of the AfD, particularly after one of the party’s co-leaders claimed she had received personal congratulations from Musk on the election results.
Finding a new approach to dealing with the US will not be easy and will likely dominate the challenges Germany and its European allies will face in coming years.
Germany is at the beginning of a new era. After four years of a centre-left coalition, the next four years will set a different tone. After yesterday’s result, the world must hold its breath and keep its eyes on Germany a little longer. Friedrich Merz is not yet chancellor, and Germany does not yet have a new government to set the agenda for the country and Europe’s future.
Even once the coalition begins its work and Germany has a relatively stable government again, people in Germany and across Europe may still be unable to breathe a sigh of relief, given the uncertain future they face.