US President Donald Trump recently completed his trip to the Middle East, visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Throughout his visit, the President signed several major business deals designed to strengthen security and economic ties between the United States and the Gulf States.
The nature and scale of these deals is unprecedented, leading many observers to view this recent diplomatic visit as a historic event. It marks a fundamental shift not only in US foreign policy in the Middle East, but also in regional geopolitics.
To understand how and why the US-Gulf relationship arrived at this point, it is important to discuss the role of recent diplomatic history in bringing these two power centres into greater partnership.
Trump the businessman
As with most stories involving President Trump, the first place to start is with the man himself. He has long-conveyed his belief in the central role of individual relationships in driving business. He applies this same personality-oriented strategy to politics.
This results in a foreign policy that focuses on “commerce, not chaos”, where stability is best advanced through economic development and business relationships. The 2020 Abraham Accords were completed under a similar kind of logic. Under the Accords, Washington leveraged Israel’s regional military and technological prowess to deepen economic coordination regarding energy, aerospace, trade, and others strategic policy sectors. Moreover, they aim to stabilize the the insecurity felt within the Gulf vis-á-vis Iran and the tumult of economic diversification to create what scholars have called a “tacit security regime”.
In this way, President Trump’s foreign policy moves beyond traditional left and right politics. Instead, his decisions are guided by his pragmatic business instincts, rather than traditional political strategies held by the Washington establishment.
What did Trump do on his visit?
In his visit to Saudi Arabia, Trump announced the lifting of economic sanctions on Syria. This came after he met with Syrian President Al-Sharra, who had prior connections to Al-Qaeda, and was captured and imprisoned by American forces in 2006.
The removal of the sanctions can be read as a good-faith effort to reset American policies in the Middle East. However, this decision has been met with caution by some conservative politicians in Washington who prefer that the US continue to prioritise counterterrorism in its foreign policy. At the same time, a US-Syrian reapproachment could prove vital in advancing Syrian-Israeli normalization and expanding the Abraham Accords. In a recent interview, Al-Sharra noted that Syria and Israel share, “common enemies––and we [Syria and Israel] can play a major role in regional security.”
Nevertheless, it is a momentous and surprising development that the President of the United States met with a leader who was formerly imprisoned by the American military for charges of terrorism. Therefore, it is possible that this administration’s visit will be remembered as the official end to the Global War on Terror.
The history
However, the reality is that a long series of political changes led to this historic event. The beginnings of the story are found with President Obama. Obama was elected on a promise to end the “forever wars”. In office, he attempted to move US foreign policy away from the Middle East and toward the Pacific to counter China.
Obama, Biden, and Trump all share the view that the national interest of the United States is not served by a large-scale, “on the ground” military presence in the Middle East.
In different ways, each President has attempted to rebalance America’s global military influence. They are similar in that they view China as the US’s first and foremost strategic competitor and sought to change American foreign policy accordingly.
However, the Gulf states and many in the region saw the relative decline of American military presence as a retreat from security commitments made during the 90s and 2000s. Additionally, the US’s mixed record regarding interventions during the Arab Spring, the US-Iran nuclear deal, as well as the confused policies regarding Gulf security during the 2017-2021 blockade of Qatar, or US inaction amidst Iran’s 2019 attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities have shaken regional confidence. In response, the peninsula increased their diplomatic, security, and economic cooperation with China. Therefore, as the US aimed to move towards China, the Middle East followed.
The Gulf states were perhaps further motivated to expand their relationships with China and Russia by the reduction in American global geopolitical influence. Seeking to diversify their economies away from oil wealth, they turned to other rising powers. China, for instance, is a growing player in next-generation technologies—the same that the Gulf states seek to develop.
After the Cold War, the United States’ domination over geopolitics was vast, leading the world to a “New World Order” based on free-market capitalism and the spread of democracy. However, following the 2008 Financial Crisis, the rise of China, and American frustration with the country’s “forever wars”, the global power of the United States has vastly changed.
Where are we now?
In this light, Trump’s security and trade deals with the Gulf are clearly aimed to keep the peninsula within the American sphere of influence. At the same time, his policy encourages the Gulf states to share more responsibility regarding regional security issues, like the threat from Iran and its proxies.
Finally, the visit crowns Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE as the new “big three” of the modern Middle East. These states possess a unique vision of state development that looks to the future while remaining true to Arab culture and religious traditions.
The clock cannot go backwards. The United States faces global competition from several great powers. These trade deals show that America is willing to fundamentally change decades of Middle East strategy and turn to a business-centred focus in its foreign policy to effectively challenge China in the region.
With respect to this goal, the key difference between Trump and the Obama-Biden years is in their commitment to American democracy, and whether the US should make the promotion of democracy overseas a major policy priority.
On this question, the United States will continue to follow an “America First” agenda, which will create new opportunities and challenges for the Middle East.