In “The World Beyond OX1”, the The Blue’s Global Affairs team explores some of the most interesting stories from around the world.
Kerch Bridge Attack
Last Saturday, a powerful explosion on the Kerch bridge, which is the main bridge connecting Russia and Crimea, caused two road lanes to be partially destroyed and caused its railway bridge to catch on fire. The Kerch bridge is the longest bridge in Europe at 19km and is the only major supply artery into Crimea, which was annexed in 2014 by Russia. The explosion killed three people. The attack is notable because it is very far from the frontlines of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia and because the bridge is naturally of huge military significance to Russia.
Since the attack, competing theories have emerged as to what happened. On Wednesday, the Russian Federal Security Service arrested eight men in connection with the attack. Russia alleges that a driver drove a truck full of explosives on to the bridge and detonated the bomb to cause maximum damage. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the attack, but the attack was widely celebrated in the country due to the bridge’s huge strategic significance for Russia. Many experts believe the source of the explosion to be consistent with a truck bomb. Andrew Barr, an expert on blast damage in war zones, stated on Twitter that, “the damage is definitely consistent with an explosion in the centre of a bridge span, as anything else would have caused damage to the pier”.
Economic Turmoil
The UK, and indeed many other developed countries, currently faces huge economic pain both from inflation (8.6%, August 2022) and, in particular, from rising energy prices. The economy also shrank by 0.3% in August with many fearing a recession. On top of these disastrous economic trends, the announcement of the Mini-budget by now former Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, has spooked markets, according to many, and the government has now u-turned on part of its tax-cutting agenda, which formed part of the package to deliver “growth, growth, growth”. This has led to Kwasi Kwarteng being sacked as Chancellor and replaced by Jeremy Hunt who ran in both of the last Tory Leadership elections and lost.
The Bank of England has also announced a rise in the interest rate. On the one hand, this is necessary to tackle rising inflation, but it also risks causing instability in the financial markets. In practical terms, the rise in the interest rate will also mean that the government will have to pay much more to service the deficit (18 billion pounds, which is more than the Home Office budget) and consumers will have a harder time with mortgages. One way of tackling this could be spending cuts, but government departments are already squeezed by inflation.
Viktor Orban Joins Twitter
Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary who has been in power since 2010 and is the leader of the Fidesz party, joined Twitter on Monday. As of Saturday, he has 69,000 followers and follows 50 people, including other right-wing politicians such as Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro but also the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, Tucker Carlson, the Fox News host, and the pope. One of Viktor Orban’s first tweets seemingly questioned the absence of Donald Trump, who has been banned from Twitter. “Where is my good friend, Donald Trump?”, Mr Orban’s tweet inquired. Another one of the Hungarian Prime Minister’s first tweets was one detailing his trip to Germany and his meeting with the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz.
Danish Elections Called
On the 5th of October, the Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen of the centre-left Social Democratic Party, called a general election to be held on the 1st of November. Despite her term not expiring before later next year, she was, in a rather bizarre turn of events, forced into calling the election by one the parties she relies on for parliamentary support, the Social Liberal Party. The Social Liberal Party extended an ultimatum, promising that they would move to hold a vote of no confidence if the Prime Minister did not call an election before the opening of parliament. This comes after the results of an enquiry into her decision to cull the nation of Denmark’s entire mink population was published in June 2022.
This enquiry led to many calls for a further investigation into whether she could be held criminally liable for breaking the Danish Constitution. Rather bizarrely, it all hinges on her decision in November 2020 to order the culling of all mink in Denmark due to fears of a new Covid-19 variant spreading amongst the mink (which later many scientists were sceptical of). A few days after the culling was initiated, it was found to be in contravention of the Danish constitution and thus illegal. However, the culling went ahead anyways for several days after this was discovered, leading many to call for her resignation when the full scope of the scandal emerged. However, instead an enquiry was launched, and the results of this enquiry led to the centrist Social Liberal Party’s ultimatum that she hold an election or face a vote of no confidence.
The elections are highly anticipated, being some of the most unpredictable in the small Scandinavian country’s history.
Brazil’s Presidential Election Heads to Runoff
On October 2nd, Brazilians went to the polls to elect a new president. Most polls had given the Worker Party’s Candidate, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, a double-digit lead against the Liberal Party’s candidate and incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro. The result ended up being 48% for Lula and 43% for Bolsonaro. This means that the election will head to a runoff since no candidate garnered more than 50% of the votes in the first round.
Lula has previously governed Brazil from 2002-10 where he achieved great popularity, leaving office with a 80% approval rating. After leaving office, the PT became embroiled in a corruption scandal known as Lava Jato (Car Wash), leading to Lula ultimately spending more than a year in prison on bribery charges before being released due to his conviction being overturned by the Brazilian Supreme Court. His support is especially strong in the poor north-east of Brazil. Jair Bolsonaro is the incumbent president of Brazil who was elected in 2018. His support is especially strong in the agricultural west of Brazil. However, both candidates are not very popular in absolute terms, with 38% of Brazilians, at one point, saying that they did not want either Lula or Bolsonaro to become president.
The election will head to a runoff on the 30th of October.
Joe Biden Pardons People Convicted of Simple Marijuana Possession
Joe Biden, on the 6th of October, pardoned all prior federal offences of simple marijuana possession. This was a campaign promise of Joe Biden when he ran in 2020, and has by some been hailed “as a first major step toward decriminalization”. In addition to this, the US President called on state governors to follow his decision and do the same. Given that the President only has the ability to pardon federal offenders, this means that the large majority of offenders will still not be pardoned by this move, as that can only be done by state governors. Moreover, Joe Biden called on his Secretary of Health and Human Services and his Attorney General to review the classification of marijuana under federal law. Currently, marijuana is scheduled as a Schedule 1 narcotic in the US along with substances like heroin and LSD.
It is estimated that 6,500 individuals will benefit from the move (for example, by having their criminal records expunged, making it easier to get a job and housing). However, some have also called into question the efficacy of the move given that no one is currently in federal prison solely for possessing marijuana. For example, Life for Pot, noting this, tweeted: “This is window dressing”. Critics have also pointed to the fact that it has taken nearly two years to fulfil the campaign promise and that Joe Biden himself drafted the 1994 Crime Bill that many argue has contributed greatly to mass incarceration in the US.