‘This is not the end, but the beginning’
In the face of an emboldened press, and a recent Nigerian presidential election defeat on 2nd March 2023, Peter Obi took to the stage. Leader of the otherwise obscure ‘Labour Party’, he had overseen an increase in the number of votes for his party from 5,075 in 2019 to 6,101,533 in 2023. This huge increase in the party’s electoral presence was shrugged off by Obi who aimed to dispute his failure to obtain the presidency. ‘This is not the end, but the beginning’ he stated in front of a stunned press: ‘We won the election, and we will prove it to Nigerians’.
What has come to follow is an intense standoff between the victorious president Bola Tinubu of the APC party, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP party (who also disputes the result), and Peter Obi. Time will tell of the product of this dispute. What cannot be denied is that politics in Nigeria has changed. A new candidate supported by a younger generation has taken up the reins of politics within Nigeria. Africa is watching with bated breath.
Peter Obi
The career of Obi before his candidacy has been a tenuous one. Obi has been known to move between parties, his move to the Labour party was preceded by his abandonment of the PDP prior to the May presidential primary. As a result, select members of the Labour Party have proclaimed his attachment to the party to be a trojan horse to achieve the presidency.
Whilst his intentions can be disputed, his personal deviation from the original aims of the party cannot. Obi’s neoliberal political beliefs that attach him to privatisation and policies aimed at cutting state spending are in direct contrast with the founding beliefs of Labour. Despite this conflict of beliefs, Obi is seen by many in the party, particularly younger members, to be an outsider willing to take on the establishment.
Calling themselves ‘Obi-dients’, most of Obi’s supporters can be found within the 18-35 voter group. A portion of these voters have fought for other political movements such as the campaign against the Special Anti-robbery Squad police unit, the protests under this campaign were often met with police brutality and violence. As a result, these supporters of Obi carry scars and, with these scars, knowledge. Techniques used to create support for previous campaigns are now being deployed by experienced activists in favour of Obi. A short scroll through the comments of Obi’s twitter posts reveals a world of songs, emotional videos, comedy skits, animations, and memes in support of Obi’s campaign, often touting campaign slogans.
Obi represents a break from tradition for this new generation of supporters. In the wake of economic insecurity with unemployment at 33% and inflation at 21% many young people see an opportunity to shift the structures of societal constraint. Obi has promised to dissolve ‘the structure that has kept us where we are’ by moving Nigeria from a consumption to production-based economy. He aims to create a strong middle class through better opportunities for education and economic development through the reinvigoration of Nigeria’s oil refineries and industry. While the reality of these claims can only be reflected by a presidency, the appeal they hold to a disaffected youth is monumental.
Obi is not a figure marked by obscurity; he had previously been governor of Anambra state. His two-term tenure in this position is used by his supporters as an attempt to prove his competency. Heavy investment into education, his ability to pay salaries on time and the huge savings left in the coffers after the end of his term have helped paint an image of him as a beacon of stability in a sea of economic turmoil. Obi is also a member of the Igbo tribe and a Christian, two identities that have largely been absent from the highest echelons of Nigerian politics for years, centuries in the case of his ethnic identity. His image remains one of a capable outsider, youthful in outlook and eager for change.
William Ruto
The 2022 electoral campaign of William Ruto of Kenya provides a similar case of an outsider candidate aiming to appeal to the youth vote. His supporters called themselves ‘hustlers’ and placed themselves in opposition to the Azimio party led by Raila Odinga and supported by Uhuru Kenyatta, its association with the two leading political families gave them the nickname ‘dynasties’.
Despite being the Vice President alongside Uhuru Kenyatta and supporting Odinga in the 2007 general election Ruto also attempted to present himself as an outsider. He has utilised his rags-to-riches life story that saw him move from chicken and groundnut seller to successful businessmen to appeal to the aspirations of those in poverty.
Ruto’s approach was to create a ‘bottom up’ economy by providing grants to small and medium sized enterprises and financial support to those most in need. These policies worked to produce a supporter base of young people, badly affected by the 40% unemployment rate, and seeing no way out of poverty. In this way Ruto’s image as a self-made man fitted in nicely with his political ideas, he is a living representation of the type of successful person his policies could create; the ‘hustler’ incarnate.
A threat to the establishment?
Obi and Ruto, and the new form of candidate they stand for, present a paradox. Youthful old men. Establishment disestablishmentarians. Both figures were previously at the heart of the political establishment yet quickly moved to present themselves as outsiders. Both are men of an older generation attempting to represent the young people of their nation. The politics of both candidates is confusing yet effective at capturing political energies. It attempts to use their otherwise comfortable seat in the establishment as a tool to break down the conventions that underline it.
In a global economy that has left many nations strained under the pressure of economic insecurity, these paradoxical politicians have managed to appeal to and harness the youth vote using social media to subvert established political norms. Both figures have broken party, ethnic and dynastic dominance in their bids for political power. Whether ‘hustler’ or ‘obi-dient’, this new generation of supporters find great appeal in both candidate’s imagery of rising from the bottom to the top.
It is yet to be decided as to whether the carefully crafted political imagery that has attracted such a wide support base will amount to an administrative reality. Claims of a fraudulent election by Obi may be shrugged off in the face of litigation and internal pressure. For Obi this election defeat could be the end, an electoral epoch followed by a slow decline into political obscurity. What remains will be his supporters, a base of young people, disaffected by economic conditions; driven into political action, who will spend the next few years in anticipation. Whether you agree or disagree with his politics, practice or person, Peter Obi is right about one thing: this is not the end, but the beginning.