Overview:
The Global Affairs team share some of the most important weekly headlines that you may otherwise have missed.
A note from the editor
This week, Eric Balonwu covers the US election results. However there’s more news than just the election with Jack Stone writing about Israel’s ban on UNWRA. Looking at Europe, Nicholas Marshall writes about the collapse of the German Government while Katarina Harrison-Gaze covers the fallout from the floods in Spain. Finally, Laura van Heijnsbergen writes about the life of comedian Janey Godley.
A lot has happened this week outside of OX1, and we hope this week’s Outside OX1 helps to explain some of them!
Trump wins the US Presidential Election, Republicans win the Senate while the House is still too close to call
Eric Balonwu
Former US president, Donald Trump, has won the US presidential election according to media projections on the 6th of November. At the time of writing, results in Nevada and Arizona, are still too close to call. However, Trump’s projected victory in the battleground states of Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (three states which had previously voted for Biden in 2020) already means that Trump is projected to win at least 277 electoral college votes. A successful presidential candidate needs at least 270 votes in the Electoral College (the group of presidential electors that elect a president) to win the election. American presidential candidates can amass these votes by winning contests in each of America’s 50 states (where more populous states get more electoral votes). This system has meant that American presidents (including Donald Trump) have become president without winning the popular vote. However, it seems that Trump has won both the popular vote and the electoral college. Republicans had only managed to achieve this result once in the last 8 elections since 1992.
On the Congressional level, Senate Republicans have already flipped three seats in traditionally Republican states (Montana, West Virginia and Ohio) and have regained control of the Senate. 3 senate races currently held by the Democrats in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona are also currently too close to call. This means that Trump will be able to easily appoint judges to federal courts – likely making the federal courts (and potentially the Supreme Court) even more conservative. Given that Senators are elected on six-year terms, any further losses could make it even harder for the Democrats to regain Senate control. Democrats are already structurally disadvantaged in the Senate (a body of Congress which represents each state) since rural smaller and conservative states are overrepresented (relative to the national population). Meanwhile, the House is currently too close to call – a last resort for Democrats who want to stop Trump’s legislative agenda.
Israel bans UNRWA
Jack Stone
On November 5th, Israel notified the UN that it will cease to abide by its 1967 agreement to recognise the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). The announcement comes one week after the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, voted to ban the agency from operating in the country.
UNRWA was founded in 1949 to aid the 700,000 Palestinian refugees who were forcibly displaced during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. Since then it has provided various forms of aid and protection—5.9 million Palestinains are eligible for UNRWA services today.
The Knesset’s decision will have disastrous consequences. While UNRWA is not set to be banned from Gaza or the West Bank, its operations there will become severely limited. This effectively criminalises humanitarian aid. A former head of the agency warned that thousands of people will slip into food insecurity and mass starvation if the decision goes through. UNICEF likewise commented in a statement that “UNRWA is indispensable in delivering the urgent, life-saving assistance that 2.2 million people in Gaza urgently need”. The decision, they said, “will be deadly”.
There is a concerning possibility that Israel’s actions against UNRWA amount to the use of starvation as a strategy. The ban also appears to be part of a wider plan to ethnically cleanse Gaza, according to analysts.
Israel’s move has garnered worldwide condemnation. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has called on Israeli lawmakers to stop the ban. In fact, Netanyahu could still veto the bill passed by the Knesset. The UK government, and the international community at large, have not commented on how they will respond if Israel goes through with its plans.
Anger mounts in Spain as flood death toll rises
Katarina Harrison-Gaze
Floods in southern and eastern Spain have killed over 214 people, including a British couple, with the death toll expected to rise as recovery efforts continue.
The floods mainly affected the eastern coastal region of Valencia, with deaths also reported in Castilla-La Mancha and Andalusia. The extreme flash floods destroyed much of Valencia’s infrastructure, leaving many areas without access to running water, food or electricity. Many people were also caught by the flash floods in their cars or in underground spaces. Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, described the floods as “the most serious flooding that our continent has seen so far this century.” In recent history, only the 1967 floods in Portugal reached a higher death toll.
The rescue efforts have amounted to Spain’s biggest peacetime disaster recovery operation, with over 10,000 troops and police officers deployed. A Spanish navy vessel arrived at Valencia’s port on Nov. 4 carrying helicopters and lorries loaded with food and water. Volunteer clean-up efforts in Valencia, mainly organised by young people, have also gained traction – at least 15,000 Valencians have joined the recovery efforts.
Speaking in the aftermath of the floods, Prime Minister Sanchez said, “our priorities are clear: saving lives, finding the bodies of the people who have died, and rebuilding the affected areas.” More bodies are expected to be found as contact is made with previously inaccessible areas, with the worst of the weather having passed over. Prime Minister Sanchez has also asked the European Union for support in recovery efforts. Despite this plea, the Spanish government declined an offer from the French government to send 250 firefighters to help with search and rescue efforts.
Anger continues to mount at how the authorities handled the disaster, with locals claiming they have “lost everything” and “were left to die” by the national and regional governments. While visiting Paiporta, one of the worst affected towns in Valencia, King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia were pelted with mud. Objects were also thrown at Prime Minister Sanchez by angry protesters who labelled the visiting entourage as “murderers.” King Felipe, who continued with the visit, later issued a statement on Nov. 3 saying he understood “the anger and frustration of many people, given all they have gone through.”
The Valencian regional government has also come under fire, due to their slow reaction to alert people about the severe weather. An emergency alert was issued at 20:00 local time, however by then the flood water was already rising. Locals labelled the regional government’s response as “outrageous”, saying the “tragedy” was “avoidable.”
The World Weather Attribution, a group of international scientists who investigate global warming’s role in extreme weather, said the warming climate is likely to have made the floods more severe, estimating that the rainfall was 12 percent heavier than it otherwise would have been.
Germany’s ‘Traffic Light Coalition’ Collapses after Finance Minister is fired
Nicholas Marshall
On Wednesday 6th November, the ruling German coalition, often referred to as the “Ampelkoalition” (Traffic Light Coalition), collapsed as Chancellor Olaf Scholz, leader of the Social Democrats (SPD), sacked Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leader of the Free Democrats (FDP).
This means Chancellor Scholz will lead a minority government of the SPD and the Greens in the German Bundestag, collectively holding 324 seats in the 733-seat parliament. This will pave the way for a snap election in March 2025, where the right-wing Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) are projected to win a vast majority of the vote, though the CDU/CSU has ruled out the possibility of a coalition between the two parties. This is due to numerous scandals involving AfD and its affiliates, including its removal from the European Parliament’s far-right “ID” group after a key AfD MEP, Maximilian Krah, stated members of the Nazi SS were “not necessarily criminals.” Additionally, members of the party held a meeting in January, which involved notable neo-Nazis, to discuss the mass deportation of approximately 5 million asylum seekers and “unassimilated” German citizens of foreign origin, prompting thousands to take to the streets across Germany in protest.
Chancellor Scholz defended his decision to sack Lindner, criticising Lindner for breaking his trust “too many times”, further stating there is “no more basis of trust for further cooperation”, referring to the union between the SPD and FDP. “Anyone who joins government must act responsibly and reliably, they cannot run for cover when things get difficult,” Scholz continued. “They must be willing to make compromises in the interests of all citizens […] But that is precisely not Christian Lindner’s focus right now, he is focused on his own clientele.”
The coalition leaders meeting in Berlin was widely seen as a “make or break” meeting for a coalition government that has been teetering on collapse for the past few months. This has largely been over economic disagreements, as Germany’s economic growth has collapsed after the pandemic. The FDP and SPD have struggled to finalise the 2025 Budget as they have increasingly different suggestions on how to resolve the country’s financial woes. Lindner produced a paper for the FDP outlining a vision to revive Germany’s export-driven economy, but this crucially argued against the SPD and Greens’ policy platforms, leading to the collapse of the government.
The remaining three FDP ministers in the government, (representing the justice, transport, and education ministries), do not necessarily need to be replaced. However, the post of finance minister is declared in the constitution, meaning Chancellor Scholz must appoint a replacement. Possible candidates for finance minister in the minority government include Wolfgang Schmidt, Scholz’s head of office, and Robert Habeck, current Economy Minister and Vice-Chancellor.
As for electoral processing, Scholz will largely control the pace of the next steps, including calling a confidence motion on his government for January 15th, legally required due to the outcome of Germany’s interwar coalition. Scholz can only be pushed out by the opposition in the scenario that majority support is garnered for a specific alternative chancellor currently sitting in the Bundestag, but this is extremely unlikely given the Bundestag’s current electoral makeup.
Janey Godley – firecracker Glasgow comedian dies aged 63
Laura van Heijnsbergen
Janey Godley, a Glasgow comedian died on the 2nd of November after a battle with ovarian cancer. Godley had gained international notoriety for her protests at Trump’s golf course and her voice-overs of former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s daily COVID briefings.
Outside of her outspoken political protest, Godley was known for transmuting her troubled early life in Glasgow into five-star stand-up shows. Godley was born into an impoverished family in Glasgow’s East End, and her comedy frequently referenced her chaotic childhood. At 19 she went on to marry one of the seven sons of George Storrie, a notorious Glasgow gangster. She later helped to run the Storrie family pub for fourteen years in the Calton district (a district of Glasgow perhaps best known for having a male life expectancy of only 54 at the start of the 21stcentury). However, she walked out on the life and started over as a stand-up comedian. In recent years, Godley reached a wider audience for her humorous impersonations of major British political figures including Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May. She went viral during the first COVID lockdown for her interpretations of what Sturgeon was really saying in her daily televised briefings – always delivered, of course, in strong Scots, with a great deal of profanity.
Godley’s virality saw her made the face of an NHS Scotland campaign to promote uptake of the vaccine and adherence to social distancing measures. However, she was swiftly dropped after old racist tweets – for which she profusely apologised – were unearthed. Weeks later, her cancer was discovered and while she was initially declared cancer-free in 2022, she announced the same December that the cancer had returned and spread.
Godley will be remembered by many for her no-nonsense, irrepressible comedic style; using her difficult past as a source for her humour, and as an inspiration for those who have struggled with similar issues. Her fondness for her hometown – upon being awarded the inaugural ‘Spirit of Glasgow’ award, she declared “this will be my tombstone” – has made her a local legend.