Overview:
The Global Affairs team share some of the most important weekly headlines that you may otherwise have missed.
A note from the editor
On the 16th of October Hamas’ leader, Yahya Sinwar, was killed by Israel in Gaza. Meanwhile, elections were held in Moldova producing a close result and allegations of Russian interference. In Australia, King Charles’s visit produced a reaction from one Australian Senator. While in the UK, the government has released more prisoners early in response to an overcrowding crisis.
As usual, a lot goes on outside of OX1, and we hope this week’s Outside OX1 helps to explain some of them!
Sinwar’s death and Gaza’s suffering
Jack Stone
On October 17th a video emerged appearing to show the killing of Yahya Sinwar, leader of Hamas. After more than a year of war in Gaza, and the death of over 43,000 Palestinians, the architect of the October 7th attacks was killed in a chance encounter. His death signals, at least symbolically, the decapitation of Hamas, one of Israel’s primary objectives from the war.
Born in a refugee camp in Khan Younis, the Hamas leader was arrested for murder and sabotage in 1988. He spent 23 years in an Israeli prison, using his time to learn Hebrew and read local newspapers and books. After being released in an exchange deal, he gained a reputation for ruthless competency among the Hamas militancy.
It is unclear why the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) released the footage of Sinwar’s death. In the video, Sinwar is seen throwing a wooden baton at the Israeli drone while dressed in a combat vest. The image is likely to cement his legacy as a martyr among the Palestinians.
Israel claims this as a significant political victory; its focus is now entirely on returning the hostages. Since last year’s November ceasefire, the number of Israeli hostages rescued out of Gaza has dwindled. Instead, Netanyahu appears to be prioritising an attack on Iran. The Israeli cabinet is said to have decided which Iranian targets it will hit in response to the barrage of missiles fired by Iran on October 1st.
Despite the decapitation of Hamas, a ceasefire in Gaza is as elusive now as ever. Israel has intensified its recent military activity; the amount of food aid getting into northern Gaza has abruptly reduced since the start of October. There is concern that Netanyahu is implementing the so-called “Generals’ Plan”, which would amount to the ethnic cleansing of North Gaza. The UN human rights office (OHCHR) remarked that it was “appalled” at the situation.
Accusations of Russian interference as Moldovans vote to join EU
Katarina Harrison-Gaze
On Oct 20, Moldovans voted narrowly to amend the constitution the express their desire to join the European Union, The votes for Yes were counted at 50.46 percent and No at 49.54 percent, a far narrower margin than many government officials predicted, with the referendum expected to pass comfortably.
Incumbent Moldovan President Maia Sandu, 52, labelled the victory as ‘winning the first battle in a difficult fight.’ In a statement on X, formerly Twitter, she wrote ‘our EU future will now be anchored in the constitution.’ The referendum result means that a clause will now be added to the Moldovan constitution to facilitate accession to the EU, with formal talks beginning in June 2025. Sandu added ‘we fought fairly in an unfair fight’ after claims of Russian interference in the election.
The Moldovan government has said they have “clear evidence” that criminal groups had tried to buy 300,000 votes and had spread “pro-Russian propaganda”, with pro-Russian businessmen offering to pay people to vote against Sandu and the EU. The BBC reported they had evidence of vote-buying in Transnistria, the breakaway region of Moldova, supported economically and militarily by Russia. President Sandu labelled the alleged vote buying and propaganda as an “attack” and “the most disgraceful [of] means to keep our citizens and our nation trapped in uncertainty and instability.”
The alleged interference in the referendum has been widely criticised by those in Western Europe. Spokesperson for the EU, Peter Stano, said that the referendum was subject to “massive interference […] by Russia and its proxies” and condemned”‘the unprecedented malign interference” which aimed to ‘undermine the democratic vote in Moldova.”
Alongside a referendum to join the EU, Moldovans also cast their votes in the presidential election. Sandu received 42.45 percent of the vote, but did not obtain the 50 percent needed to win outright. She is now facing a Nov. 3 run-off against pro-Russian candidate and former prosecutor-general Alexandr Stoianoglo, who received 25.98 percent of the vote.
King Charles heckled by Indigenous Australian lawmaker Lidia Thorpe on his visit to Canberra
Nicholas Marshall
King Charles III was heckled by Australian Senator Lidia Thorpe as he concluded a speech at Parliament House in Canberra on his 16th official visit to Australia and first visit as King.
As she approaches the King, the senator exclaims “You are not our King. You are not sovereign. You committed genocide against our people.”
She begins to be escorted out, declaring “Give us our land back! Give us what you stole from us! Our bones, our skulls, our babes, our people. You destroyed our land!”
Thorpe is an independent Gunnai, Gunditjmara and Djab Wurrung senator first elected in Victoria in 2020, becoming the first Indigenous person to hold this position. A prominent advocate for the rights of Indigenous Australians, Thorpe argues that the incarceration and violence caused by colonisation can only be resolved through a national treaty. She believes that such a treaty would address the core issues facing First Nations communities.
Her main political priority is for Australia to sign a treaty with its Indigenous people, as Australia is the only Commonwealth country that has not done so.
Thorpe’s actions have been criticised by numerous political figures and Indigenous leaders. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott called it “unfortunate political exhibitionism”, and prominent Aboriginal elder Aunty Violet Sheridan stated that she “does not speak for me and my people.” Others have praised the actions as “brave”, with Bundjalung lawyer and author Vanessa Turnbull-Roberts stating there was “nothing more harmful or disrespectful” than inviting the monarchy to tour the country in the first place, given its history.
However, Monday’s incident would not surprise those who follow Australian politics, as the senator has a long-standing history of advocating for Indigenous rights and decolonisation throughout her political career. In 2022, the senator, while being sworn into parliament after re-election, said that she bears allegiance to “the colonising Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II,” deviating from the inscribed oath elected officials traditionally make. Following criticism from other senators, she repeated the oath as printed. Additionally, she was pictured turning her back when God Save the King was played in anticipation of Charles’ arrival this past week.
Australia has been de facto independent from the UK since 1901, but it remains a Commonwealth realm with the British monarch remaining as head of state, similar to that of Canada or Jamaica. Last year, Australians voted overwhelmingly against a government-backed proposal which would have recognised First Nations people in the constitution and allowed them to form a body to advise parliament. Consequently, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, despite leading the centre-left republican Labour Party, has ruled out a referendum on Australia becoming a republic during this current parliamentary term (ending in 2025).
King Charles and Queen Camilla have since continued their visit to Australia in Sydney before they depart to Samoa for a meeting of countries within the British Commonwealth.
Government releases 1,100 prisoners early whilst launching a review on sentencing
Eric Balonwu
On the 22nd of October, for the second time, more than a thousand prisoners in the U.K. will be released early. The only prisoners eligible to be released early are those who have served a sentence longer than 5 years. Offenders convicted of serious violent crime, sexual offences or domestic abusers are not eligible for early release.
The early release scheme was introduced in July by the new Labour government to tackle overcrowding in prisons. However, even under Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government some prisoners were being released 18 days earlier than their conditional release date (and this date rose to 35 and finally 70 days early). 10,000 prisoners were released early from prison from October 2023 to June 2024 because of this scheme. The current Justice Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, scrapped the previous government’s scheme known as the end of custody supervised licence (ECSL) scheme and instead allowed some prisoners to be released after they had served 40%, rather than 50% of their sentence.
These schemes were introduced because prisons had been operating at more than 99% capacity in 2023 and the first half of 2024 – while on net a hundred more people were being imprisoned. On July 8, three days after the election of a new Labour government, there were only 708 available male prison places out of 84,463. Ideally, officials have wanted a buffer of 1,425 spaces to deal with a sudden influx of inmates (such as the increase in the prison population after far-right riots in August 2024). The scheme has been criticised after 37 inmates were mistakenly released – who are now back in custody – and after some offenders were not fitted with electronic tag measures. The Justice Secretary has said it was likely the proportion of offenders who were recalled back to prison was high (but not 50%) while stating that this will be the last time prisoners will be released early. A new sentencing review has also been announced (led by former Conservative justice minister, David Gauke,) in an attempt to tackle the overcrowding problem in the long-term – as without any other changes demand for prison places will continue to outstrip prison capacity. The review is expected to consider whether judges could punish more people outside prison and whether the UK could use technology, such as sobriety tags or sending “nudge” messages to offenders.