New countries are rare. The powerful independence movements and collapse of global empires following the Second World War saw dozens of newly independent countries join the United Nations. However, only three—East Timor, Montenegro, and South Sudan—have joined since 2000.
The Pacific island of Bougainville has set its sights on joining this coveted club of independent, internationally recognised countries. But five years following a referendum where an overwhelming majority of its population (97.7 percent) voted for sovereignty from Papua New Guinea (PNG), independence remains elusive.
A brief history
Bougainville is the easternmost island of PNG. Ethnically and linguistically diverse, over 20 Indigenous languages are spoken amongst its population of under 400,000.
Both Bougainville and PNG were administered by Australia until 1975 when PNG gained its independence. Despite Bougainville calling for the same recognition, PNG absorbed Bougainville as a province a year later. Australian mining giant Rio Tinto also secured mining rights to Bougainville’s Panguna mine, the world’s largest open-pit copper mine at the time.
But devastating environmental mismanagement of Panguna, such as the dumping of a billion tonnes of mine waste into nearby rivers, and local anger over unequal division of mining royalties fueled calls to secede from PNG. This ultimately erupted into a ten-year civil war between Bougainville and PNG where over 15,000 were killed.
The conflict ended with a 2001 peace agreement which created the Autonomous Region of Bougainville and mandated a future non-binding referendum on the island’s political status. But technical disagreements between both sides have meant that PNG’s parliament has yet to ratify the 2019 referendum results, the last significant political hurdle for Bougainville’s independence.
Bougainville’s leaders have repeatedly expressed their frustration at the impasse. “Time has caught up with us. We must act now and address the independence issue head-on,” Ishmael Torama, President of the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG) told James Marape, Prime Minister of PNG last year at a consultative meeting between the two leaders.
How to build a nation
Wary that political consultations with PNG may drag on and hamper its goal of achieving independence by September 2027, the ABG has already set in motion some elements of nation-building. For instance, a draft constitution published last year is undergoing an extensive public consultation process.
Developing a self-sustaining economy is another key focus. Bougainville’s gross domestic product is miniscule—approximately half a billion dollars per year—and is reliant on exports of cocoa beans and coconuts.
The ABG’s revenue projections depend on re-opening the shuttered Panguna mine but given the mine’s intertwined history with conflict, this will be a delicate undertaking. Torama acknowledges Bougainville is “a reminder of what not to do in resource sector development”. Since the ABG granted an exploration license last year to Australian company Bougainville Mineral Investments, a land access and compensation agreement was signed with traditional landowners. An independent report on the environmental and human rights impacts of Panguna and recommendations for remediation was published in December; Rio Tinto has accepted the findings of the report.
Creating a regulatory environment conducive to business growth will also encourage small and medium-sized enterprises and diversify the economy away from mining.
Then remains the question of how an independent Bougainville will conduct its foreign policy.
In recent years, the Pacific Islands have found themselves in the middle of a geopolitical competition for influence with the United States and Australia on one side, and China on the other. A flurry of American and Chinese proposals offering development aid, infrastructure funding, and policing support have given the Pacific Islands their pick of partners.
Some within the region are concerned that they may be drawn into picking sides in an external conflict. Others highlight the opportunity this offers to gain resources and support.
While former U.S. President Joe Biden spent his term developing security partnerships like the Quad and AUKUS with regional allies—thinly-veiled counters to China—his successor Donald Trump has yet to demonstrate the same level of interest in the Pacific.
However, Trump’s proclivity to source critical minerals in conflict zones—from Ukraine to Congo—could be a wildcard in Bougainville’s path to independence. In 2023, the ABG estimated the Panguna mine still holds $90 billion in metal reserves, including gold and copper, the latter a key resource for the energy transition.
Torama has encouraged American investment in Bougainville and support for independence, offering preferential mining rights; a Bougainville official has even suggested a military base. But in the absence of Western support, Torama is ready to go to China, a step he describes as playing “the last card”.
Nearly 40 percent of peace agreements have collapsed within five years of signing. But almost twenty five years on, Bougainville seems to have bucked the trend, pursuing an inclusive nation building approach from the drafting of its constitution to the development of its resources.
Both PNG and the ABG have the time and negotiating space to agree on mutually acceptable terms for Bougainville’s future, conditions not often afforded in other post-conflict contexts. It is a rare opportunity that both parties should take advantage of.